NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2b0314e985170467bde68ca1685f4e407ddf23cee5c1d0f6cd2ed4a6a44f6c

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,004 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x777d…5143backed Over	52c	12,089$6,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,286.11	197	54.3%107 W · 90 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	11,049$5,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,705.17	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	50c	4,019$2,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,009.5	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	49c	3,075$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,574.52	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	2,869$1,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,395.39	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	51c	2,348$1,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,197.48	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6a…1827backed Under	53c	2,151$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,010.94	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+94.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	1,806$902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$903.52	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	47c	1,500$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…85e7backed Under	51c	1,361$694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.78	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.6wins	+0.28per pick	49cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Under	53c	985.9$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.37	277	35%97 W · 180 L	-30.7wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Over	52c	961.04$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.74	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	52c	713$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.5	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	51c	686.4$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.06	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under	52c	584.62$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.62	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	558$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.98	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over	52c	446.2$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.49	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	53c	188$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.64	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	48c	123.83$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.39	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	53c	116$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.95	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	49c	105$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.19	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Over	50c	99.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.62	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	47c	96.88$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	50c	74.99$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under	48c	67$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.84	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Under	45c	66.66$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.66	342	46.8%160 W · 182 L	+18.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over	56c	64$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under	49c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over	48c	41.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	234	38.9%91 W · 143 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c8…2cb0backed Over	52c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	46c	35.82$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.37	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	48c	30.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.66	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5253…b898backed Over	52c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	45c	23.78$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.08	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d8…48b7backed Over	52c	22.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	48c	21.15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event