NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f14a1c0e5b789cc2ca7f764a780a159be69a30717790639c1a0aab84297d53

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x309d…3a8abacked Under	52c	133$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.84	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under	52c	119$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.12	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Under	52c	96$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.08	71	62%44 W · 27 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+22%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under	52c	82$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.36	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf5…840ebacked Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Over	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Over	48c	44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Over	48c	37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf447…3fe7backed Over	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Over	48c	29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Over	48c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…47edbacked Over	48c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f8…667fbacked Over	48c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09db…7384backed Over	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+5.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 120.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event