Tennis · resolved market

Segovia: Alastair Gray vs Akira Santillan

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1989cafbee63c7c779b6b70e14b260714134cbfcde9465113e3a9ff8125ec508

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Akira Santillanof Alastair Gray, Akira Santillan
Resolved: Jul 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $323,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $302,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,911 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Alastair Gray	21c	25,631$5,384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,383.79	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alastair Gray	18c	12,606$2,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,254.24	3,605	42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L	-43.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb16b…c8b7backed Alastair Gray	0c	10,132$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Akira Santillan	14c	6,447$927 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,520.13	8,828	36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L	-193.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Akira Santillan	42c	2,728$1,146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,582.55	332	56%186 W · 146 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Alastair Gray	18c	2,656$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.3	4,185	44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L	+14.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9340…e829backed Akira Santillan	36c	2,613$939 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,674.37	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alastair Gray	14c	2,433$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.72	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alastair Gray	28c	1,649$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.12	8,505	42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L	-166.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Alastair Gray	13c	1,638$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.59	2,065	35.2%727 W · 1,338 L	-52.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Alastair Gray	2c	1,378$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.08	229	39.3%90 W · 139 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Alastair Gray	22c	1,103$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.04	1,795	46.6%837 W · 958 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195f…8c53backed Alastair Gray	68c	1,083$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Alastair Gray	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Akira Santillan	31c	813.58$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.58	464	35.3%164 W · 300 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4890…03f1backed Akira Santillan	24c	733.54$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.82	99	16.2%16 W · 83 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Alastair Gray	7c	666.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	366	21.6%79 W · 287 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Alastair Gray	27c	611.48$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.4	2,049	46.8%958 W · 1,091 L	+19.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Akira Santillan	32c	599.99$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	7,049	39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L	-20.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Alastair Gray	79c	561.86$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.87	182	61.5%112 W · 70 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9a…3333backed Akira Santillan	14c	484.88$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Akira Santillan	32c	468.75$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.75	1,186	52.4%622 W · 564 L	+28.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Alastair Gray	32c	464.28$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.5	1,429	44.2%631 W · 798 L	-23.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Alastair Gray	12c	462.67$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	6,449	46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L	-42.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Alastair Gray	56c	430.36$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241	353	60.9%215 W · 138 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alastair Gray	9c	393.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.53	4,921	38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L	-20.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Alastair Gray	67c	298.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	335	51.9%174 W · 161 L	-15.3wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Akira Santillan	14c	293.79$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.66	1,226	52%637 W · 589 L	+44.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Alastair Gray	74c	281$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.81	1,532	40.7%624 W · 908 L	-48.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Akira Santillan	34c	276.08$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.37	4,241	52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L	+65.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alastair Gray	72c	254.85$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.42	4,533	67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L	+306.6wins	+0.07per pick	61cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b33…d653backed Alastair Gray	21c	249.48$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.01	234	42.7%100 W · 134 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Akira Santillan	51c	232.73$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.94	3,068	57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L	+173.3wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Akira Santillan	43c	227.91$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.91	447	51.7%231 W · 216 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Akira Santillan	34c	205.88$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.88	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked Alastair Gray	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe081…0bf5backed Akira Santillan	31c	200$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	81	23.5%19 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…986cbacked Alastair Gray	67c	180.43$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.89	636	48%305 W · 331 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Alastair Gray	67c	173.35$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.34	2,561	63%1,613 W · 948 L	-10.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Alastair Gray	12c	165.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Alastair Gray	66c	157.17$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.2	2,735	34%931 W · 1,804 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Alastair Gray	66c	155.92$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.91	271	48%130 W · 141 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Alastair Gray	39c	152.29$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	1,880	48.5%912 W · 968 L	+8.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alastair Gray	62c	150.94$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.94	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Akira Santillan	25c	150$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	671	44.7%300 W · 371 L	+30.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Akira Santillan	33c	140$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	834	47.5%396 W · 438 L	-2.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Alastair Gray	78c	127.38$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	113	72.6%82 W · 31 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	78cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a21…5c28backed Akira Santillan	74c	121.21$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.01	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Alastair Gray	34c	116.57$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.37	721	47.3%341 W · 380 L	-18.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Alastair Gray	49c	110.26$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.7	481	52%250 W · 231 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Akira Santillan	27c	109.65$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.51	3,874	45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L	-39.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…69a5backed Akira Santillan	29c	103.45$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.45	215	55.8%120 W · 95 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Akira Santillan	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.66	1,708	44.8%766 W · 942 L	-18.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Alastair Gray	11c	93.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	877	41.3%362 W · 515 L	-14.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Akira Santillan	23c	90.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.22	186	48.4%90 W · 96 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40cb…7ea7backed Akira Santillan	31c	64.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Akira Santillan	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	222	35.1%78 W · 144 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Alastair Gray	42c	60$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	390	35.9%140 W · 250 L	-61.1wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Alastair Gray	68c	55.53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.76	3,256	48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L	-53.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Akira Santillan	33c	54.23$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.33	7,139	49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L	+109.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Alastair Gray	69c	52.11$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.98	1,021	57.8%590 W · 431 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Alastair Gray	36c	50.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	1,853	57.7%1,069 W · 784 L	+106.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3131…91cdbacked Akira Santillan	21c	48.48$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	318	55.7%177 W · 141 L	+16.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Alastair Gray	67c	44.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2,058	59.5%1,225 W · 833 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Alastair Gray	46c	40.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	829	58.1%482 W · 347 L	+17.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f53…1a89backed Alastair Gray	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Alastair Gray	74c	38.84$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.74	3,677	54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L	+107.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Alastair Gray	78c	32.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	289	33.2%96 W · 193 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Alastair Gray	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Alastair Gray	67c	29.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	814	57%464 W · 350 L	+19.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6f…cc7cbacked Alastair Gray	59c	28.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	76	61.8%47 W · 29 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alastair Gray	66c	28.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	4,934	41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L	-77.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c5…b5e9backed Alastair Gray	70c	26.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	231	62.8%145 W · 86 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0642…422ebacked Alastair Gray	68c	22.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	81	58%47 W · 34 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fe…b131backed Akira Santillan	54c	20.49$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.49	135	54.1%73 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Alastair Gray	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2,082	52.3%1,088 W · 994 L	+19.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Alastair Gray	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,175	52.9%622 W · 553 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Alastair Gray	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,725	52.2%901 W · 824 L	-8.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Alastair Gray	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,767	52.1%920 W · 847 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Akira Santillan	80c	17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.4	978	52%509 W · 469 L	+7.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Alastair Gray	68c	14.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	901	52.3%471 W · 430 L	-2.6wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Segovia: Alastair Gray vs Akira Santillan

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market