Tennis · resolved market
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a72379d3d9531836516df924e1a1315b45593fa6c7fe6f20d09658262584ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Over 4.5 | 66c | 3,500$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.99 | 442 | 63.6%281 W · 161 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Over 4.5 | 72c | 2,822$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.61 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Over 4.5 | 41c | 2,611$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under 4.5 | 46c | 2,265$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.94 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc73…d0c6backed Under 4.5 | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under 4.5 | 33c | 1,715$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.06 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 4.5 | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under 4.5 | 46c | 1,409$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.86 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 1,098$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over 4.5 | 33c | 900.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.32 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under 4.5 | 38c | 853.88$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…83a0backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 784.61$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.61 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Over 4.5 | 72c | 713.18$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.18 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over 4.5 | 80c | 622.64$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under 4.5 | 75c | 509.46$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.19 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 4.5 | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…38d8backed Over 4.5 | 66c | 497.26$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.27 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…3dd1backed Over 4.5 | 27c | 451.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…8ceebacked Over 4.5 | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Under 4.5 | 34c | 323.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 4.5 | 73c | 302.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.94 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under 4.5 | 75c | 267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 1,047 | 50%524 W · 523 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Over 4.5 | 55c | 210.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over 4.5 | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over 4.5 | 66c | 198.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Over 4.5 | 38c | 195$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Under 4.5 | 13c | 171.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Under 4.5 | 64c | 171.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 4.5 | 34c | 165.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Under 4.5 | 33c | 163.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Under 4.5 | 13c | 154.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under 4.5 | 55c | 133.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Over 4.5 | 26c | 131.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…717dbacked Under 4.5 | 38c | 127.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Under 4.5 | 72c | 113$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 390 | 52.1%203 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 4.5 | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…a377backed Over 4.5 | 67c | 109.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over 4.5 | 40c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 4.5 | 34c | 106.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…db16backed Over 4.5 | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Over 4.5 | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under 4.5 | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Under 4.5 | 69c | 91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under 4.5 | 16c | 87.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 162 | 30.9%50 W · 112 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…2daabacked Under 4.5 | 45c | 86.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Under 4.5 | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 338 | 51.2%173 W · 165 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Under 4.5 | 23c | 78.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…8862backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…ef52backed Over 4.5 | 40c | 66.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…8323backed Over 4.5 | 48c | 65.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…458dbacked Under 4.5 | 54c | 64.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 4.5 | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…09d4backed Under 4.5 | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 55.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Under 4.5 | 68c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 4.5 | 65c | 47.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Over 4.5 | 28c | 45.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec7…fd3dbacked Over 4.5 | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under 4.5 | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 580 | 45.5%264 W · 316 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Under 4.5 | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 49.4%310 W · 317 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under 4.5 | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…aae2backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Under 4.5 | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Under 4.5 | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 4.5 | 74c | 26.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…aa80backed Under 4.5 | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…8e0bbacked Over 4.5 | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over 4.5 | 71c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Under 4.5 | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under 4.5 | 75c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…2a0abacked Under 4.5 | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
- Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs ZverevZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5)Cobolli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.