MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a95cfb4491f86065137dcb6fec11940b40aeca9bdfaa815de1a5c735f698444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 7,196$5,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,260.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 6,512$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,438.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 4,650$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.71 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 2,288$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,323$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 1,191$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,163$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 678.42$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.02 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 602.8$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 507$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.34 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 375.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 345.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 314.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 311.47$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 298.56$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 151.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 145.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 117.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 104.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 102.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 102.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 99.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 91.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 65.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 57.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 40.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 39.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 34.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 28.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Seattle Mariners | 65c | 17.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.