NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb944ce20039106296d75653a7ce1beea467240b1e13013fd8db25d25ac1a2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pistons, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 49c | 11,639$5,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,645.47 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Pelicans | 50c | 5,047$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Pistons | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans | 52c | 3,580$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pistons | 48c | 3,575$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.55 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,928$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pistons | 40c | 1,050$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Pelicans | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Pistons | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 40c | 409.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Pistons | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Pelicans | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 56c | 275.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 50c | 273.45$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Pelicans | 50c | 252.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Pelicans | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Pistons | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pistons | 44c | 191.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pelicans | 56c | 119.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 45c | 88.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Pistons | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 57c | 56.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 50.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Pelicans | 50c | 50.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Pelicans | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Pelicans | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pelicans | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons | 40c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Pistons | 48c | 28.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Pelicans | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pelicans | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…3e2abacked Pistons | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Pistons vs. PelicansPistons won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.