TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes4c2,130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4123723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes4c610.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7222111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes11c487.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.521612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes21c478.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c415.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.082832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes4c393.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.015837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c349.08$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.556336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes14c330.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.798025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes37c328.35$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c264$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c218.34$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.347560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes35c210$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.384037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.42955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No71c196.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.124761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes26c180.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No67c173.98$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes19c173.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1911647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes6c170.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c159$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7210320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes32c157.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes19c155.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes38c154.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes11c149.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No64c139.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.721968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c137.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.577030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c132.96$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No69c131.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.33961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c124.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8944428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes11c124.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes34c112.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No73c111.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6814656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c109.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c109.37$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes31c109.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.843240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c106$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8718662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes28c101.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.13943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes31c100.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3914842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.591540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.855916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c91.57$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.364266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed No73c82.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2510…c001backed Yes32c81.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes26c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.442339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes32c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes31c79.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c76.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No68c74.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.045066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa918…9c56backed No69c72.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.77683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+137.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes26c69.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.057842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c64.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.627521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes22c61.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.286330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No65c61.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.592157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No74c59.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes28c58.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.247345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes28c54.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes24c53.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c51.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6812238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.88235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No66c49.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.613762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe724…33c6backed Yes32c47.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No69c42.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c41.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x239f…ecc1backed Yes29c39.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes28c38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No73c33.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.97875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc970…e315backed No62c32.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.366100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No70c31.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes32c31.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325e…5308backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No65c30.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.66785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+65.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.420065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1515558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.215356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No74c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd297…dcc7backed No70c28.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No72c25.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.195383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No71c25.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.652369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.188672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No69c23.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.31366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c23.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8714553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No63c23.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5818669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No69c21.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.57666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No66c21.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1739231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.393778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No63c19.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.375141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No69c18.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.814963.3%31 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No67c17.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.867058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No69c16.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39e…fa48backed No75c15.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No79c14.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.153548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No71c14.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.37100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.