TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes51c1,155$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes45c1,153$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.169337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes35c651.12$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8923723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c556$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes47c473.09$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.616533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No57c464.95$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.764856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes11c438.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.251838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x487b…f382backed Yes40c325.25$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No52c249.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.917560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c236.89$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.064037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes64c235.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c210.3$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes57c205.04$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes57c204.37$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3610733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes71c202.29$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.391625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No79c197.15$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1918348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c193.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.664761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c183.95$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5311039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No58c172.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.171154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7084…7884backed No56c169.32$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes43c167.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.191241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No28c158.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.586437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No50c158.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.054358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No63c157.26$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.192157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c152.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5315356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes37c151.74$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.546330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c150$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6826355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c149.88$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No50c145.58$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.893961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes35c143.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c141.9$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c133$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2072…5d40backed Yes51c131.94$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.051936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No39c125.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No69c124.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.133565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c124.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2116051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes38c124.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.722737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No29c120$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.55916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c119.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.55064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No56c113.27$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1814656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No47c105.24$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.14450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes36c104.94$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes39c103.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes65c102$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.43943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.523360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.15341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac2…058dbacked No28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c89.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.214467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c86.65$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.596462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes57c85.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.952634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c5e…9fa5backed Yes53c85.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes15c80.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes59c80$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.22339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No31c79.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes37c77.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.782832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes59c77.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.565749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes52c76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed Yes64c75.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes67c74.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No42c69.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3126632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No61c68.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.565345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes63c67.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.488236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No48c66.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.984266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c65.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c65.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No34c65.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+65.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No44c61.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No35c60.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.27683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+55.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No25c60.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.064129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes55c60.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.543063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes60c58.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No61c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick69cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc0…cc78backed No50c57.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c57.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8332639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…e084backed No61c56.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c55.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4139414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes39c54.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.243240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No44c54.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.547236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c50.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.628235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.96346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.352369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes41c49.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No41c47.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes32c47.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9711647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes27c46.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.453040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.