World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3c9860615e33b6f0270a336c328db7eaabf05c07eaa2d4a86eac6826ade7920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 18c | 1,646$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 63c | 852.16$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.02 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 759.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.79 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 751.23$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.44 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 47c | 702.3$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 51c | 686.67$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.81 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed Yes | 45c | 658.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 43c | 630.85$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.65 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…7d56backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 554.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.99 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 18c | 547.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 7c | 524.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.73 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 507.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.56 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 65c | 501.93$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.66 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 14c | 461.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 8c | 429.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 5c | 400.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 5c | 368.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +487.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 364.05$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 313.97$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 289.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 17c | 262.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 252.54$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 251.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 7c | 249$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 240.59$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed Yes | 9c | 237.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 28c | 237.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 14c | 237.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 9c | 225$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 218.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.58 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 208.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 201.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 10c | 200.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +898.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 6c | 194.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 193.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 47c | 189.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 14c | 187.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 187.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 181.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 8c | 178.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 176.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 34c | 172.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 7c | 163.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 162.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 16c | 160.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 44c | 156.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 154.79$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 152.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 25c | 146.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 24c | 143.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 18c | 143.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 44c | 136.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 8c | 135.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 134.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 128.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 125.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 122.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…358ebacked Yes | 9c | 121.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,015.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 15c | 115.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 35c | 108.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…9c56backed Yes | 13c | 106.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 32c | 104.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 89.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 14c | 87.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 85.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 16c | 73.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 38c | 72.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 66.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e269backed Yes | 54c | 63.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 34c | 58.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 50.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 21c | 50.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 61c | 48.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1c82backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 57c | 35.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…e268backed No | 66c | 34.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 74c | 32.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 34c | 32.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…eb1bbacked Yes | 74c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 31.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.