TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11fc…8262backed Yes18c1,646$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.942544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No63c852.16$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.025961%36 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes27c759.03$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.799337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c751.23$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes47c702.3$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No51c686.67$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.814856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe587…dc56backed Yes45c658.91$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes43c630.85$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.657353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6eb4…7d56backed Yes7c600$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5581100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes16c554.92$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.995131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes18c547.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.131127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes7c524.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.737020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c507.7$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.5627521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No65c501.93$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.664515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes14c461.01$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.461625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes8c429.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.781241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes5c400.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.92437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes5c368.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+487.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c364.05$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.515356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c313.97$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7932748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No20c289.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2913748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes17c262.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.0810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c252.54$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9524637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes22c251.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.374037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes7c249$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+126.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c240.59$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed Yes9c237.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.591172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+109.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes28c237.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes14c237.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.11450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes9c225$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.51421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c218.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.5839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes48c208.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.411154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No27c201.09$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3412249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes10c200.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+898.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes6c194.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.132540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No18c193.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9718348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes47c189.74$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes14c187.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.593154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes8c187.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3510039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes9c181.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6922111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes8c178.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.656835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes44c176.48$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4711039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes10c175$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9516934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes34c172.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.111258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes7c163.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+95.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes10c162.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes16c160.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.663545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes44c156.93$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.84358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c154.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes13c152.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes25c146.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+301.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes24c143.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.521926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes18c143.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…0caebacked Yes44c136.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.171457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes8c135.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.626437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No80c134.74$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.793231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.91936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c129.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.587582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes19c128.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.373040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c125.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4835258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c122.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7216051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb299…358ebacked Yes9c121.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,015.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes15c115.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.752454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d0…a380backed Yes35c108.9$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa918…9c56backed Yes13c106.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+137.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes32c104.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.62352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae99…2ed5backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes13c91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.171216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No52c89.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0814467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes14c87.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7618638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c85.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.737951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes16c73.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.825135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No38c72.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.195345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c66.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0232639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed Yes54c63.58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0439952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No34c58.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No75c50.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.014266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38aa…53a6backed Yes21c50.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+130.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3916738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.728235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes61c48.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.834953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61d0…1c82backed No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.247030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes54c37.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.45170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed No57c35.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe3…e268backed No66c34.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked No74c32.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.346224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes34c32.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5116051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c8…eb1bbacked Yes74c31.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No71c31.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes45c31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c30.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No74c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7218669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.