Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c49c59fbd851ddd6c9bdf5daf272dc0eea0d0c1ee4c663f591163b25697f3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 2,119$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 799.43$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 711.33$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 580$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 428$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 225.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.71 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 180$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 46c | 175.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 55c | 171$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 161$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 160.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 157.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 155.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 142.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 130.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 59c | 129.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 115.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 111.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 102.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 97.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 96.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 93.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 92.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 71c | 90.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 52c | 77.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 74.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 62.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 61.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 49.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 39c | 46.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 40.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 33.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 32.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 46c | 32.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 48c | 31.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 30.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 49c | 28.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 26.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 60c | 25.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 67c | 23.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 64c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.