Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cacd6c6768b4e29dbe939a5e48edd9bfae89444653ee864fafc0bf3969c53f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 1,798$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.17 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 18c | 778.93$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.32 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 703$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.03 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 665$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 637.81$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 536.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 479.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 455.79$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 415$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.97 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 396.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 386.93$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 341.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 275.6$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 18c | 268.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 223.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 80c | 218.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 209.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 206.53$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 205.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 205.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 201.27$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 185.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 182.61$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 171$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 17c | 154.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 147.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 134$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 132.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 132.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 129.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 128.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 122.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 25c | 121.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 22c | 119.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 55c | 119.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 114.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 104.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 102.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 17c | 100.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes | 19c | 87.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 17c | 84.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 16c | 83.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 81.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 76.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 26c | 69.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 19c | 66.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 61.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 59.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 49.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…b5f3backed Yes | 32c | 49.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 30c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 52c | 47.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 24c | 47.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 46.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 79c | 44.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 32c | 42.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 40.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 34.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 33.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 36c | 29.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 42c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 27.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 40c | 26.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 43c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 22.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 75c | 18.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 16.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 16.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.