Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd27167d6a197d6809b1cbb8394e510c64e0629fd04207755f5a3d66bf7a2063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 2,276$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.79 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 53c | 1,173$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.36 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 711.18$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 572.38$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 560.88$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.73 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 554.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 547.63$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 46c | 510.78$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.33 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 43c | 395.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 45c | 392.49$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 37c | 384.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 355$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 54c | 329.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 301$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 258.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 33c | 240.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 235.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 204.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 203.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 201.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes | 41c | 193.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 193.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 192.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 180.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 153.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 72c | 139.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 58c | 137.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 134.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 133.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 129.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 128.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 107.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 105.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 95.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 87.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 85.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 81.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 67c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 68.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 55c | 67.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 47c | 65.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 41c | 63.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 62.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 55.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 55.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 50c | 54.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 52.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 51.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 66c | 51.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…b5f3backed Yes | 46c | 50.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 47.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 62c | 46.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 46.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 44.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 43.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 41.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 41.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 58c | 41.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 39.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…1baabacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 57c | 37.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 36.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 31c | 32.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 32.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 53c | 29.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.