Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2783c95d53ce7fe829379849b13f51edf77a7b7994f0d68b0bcb05de0968c33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,903$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,071$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.43 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 871.63$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…3082backed Yes | 7c | 688.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 29c | 624.34$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 604.7$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 497.27$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 35c | 474.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 16c | 471.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 32c | 457.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 28c | 377.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 348.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 28c | 316.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 25c | 315$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 302.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 300.04$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 228.74$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 224.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 220.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 215$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 203.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 189.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 186.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 183.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 181$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 178.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 174.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 173.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 163.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 158.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 69c | 145.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 135$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 9c | 129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 20c | 125.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 119.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 107.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 107.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 28c | 86.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 18c | 83.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 77.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 26c | 69.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 67.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 66.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 57.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 51.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 50.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 71c | 47.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 77c | 44.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 43.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 41.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 26c | 40.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 37.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 29c | 35.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 35c | 35.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 35.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 30c | 34.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 34.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 33.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 25.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 78c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 72c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.