TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Tundra Esports, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$527,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$597,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora57c50,367$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,866.731,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports33c28,046$9,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,304.3789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora54c20,965$11,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,546.2533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports40c20,755$8,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,247.92,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports40c13,990$5,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,620.141,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Tundra Esports45c13,166$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,924.722644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora66c12,675$8,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.1641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Tundra Esports46c11,700$5,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.9936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora59c10,405$6,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,317.5971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Tundra Esports47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.986139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora53c8,611$4,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.3196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora57c7,812$4,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,361.831,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora58c6,947$4,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,903.71,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports46c6,913$3,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,208.7456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Tundra Esports41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46011547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Tundra Esports12c5,500$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.1180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Tundra Esports46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9927153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Tundra Esports43c4,950$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.5896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Tundra Esports19c4,726$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.1914825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed Aurora68c4,500$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.824553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora63c4,395$2,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.3377256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora58c4,338$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.871,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Tundra Esports70c4,166$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,916.4517452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora60c4,065$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Tundra Esports43c3,844$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.8532951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Tundra Esports41c3,596$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.8827143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Tundra Esports40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Tundra Esports41c3,321$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.4331248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Aurora54c3,283$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.3412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Tundra Esports38c3,162$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.413033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Aurora65c3,076$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.855251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Tundra Esports44c3,038$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.917948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Aurora55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports34c2,997$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.6843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Aurora59c2,872$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.4748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Tundra Esports35c2,820$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Aurora56c2,791$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.712630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Aurora74c2,719$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.43764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora65c2,585$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.611,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Tundra Esports64c2,508$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.5248954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9e…7928backed Tundra Esports14c2,493$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.142937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Tundra Esports36c2,450$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.512146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Tundra Esports38c2,414$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.5988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tundra Esports67c2,265$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.092,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora53c2,264$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.1539343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Tundra Esports13c2,049$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.2251049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Tundra Esports43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8603327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Tundra Esports30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60032441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Tundra Esports43c2,000$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.4881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Tundra Esports39c1,944$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a94…5e99backed Aurora54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.856159%36 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Tundra Esports43c1,824$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.226346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora75c1,774$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.4779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Aurora53c1,757$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.8650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora64c1,750$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Tundra Esports51c1,727$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.446544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Tundra Esports41c1,718$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.6164744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora56c1,570$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.860349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora57c1,567$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.6230356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aurora62c1,539$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.261,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Aurora66c1,528$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.485853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Tundra Esports40c1,505$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.044450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Tundra Esports41c1,500$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Tundra Esports45c1,500$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.4958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Tundra Esports14c1,498$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7458943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Aurora68c1,479$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.378459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fe…bcd7backed Tundra Esports8c1,454$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.246847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Aurora65c1,436$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.66842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Tundra Esports39c1,433$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.9817651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Tundra Esports12c1,375$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2511753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports36c1,374$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.492,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora73c1,360$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.5335062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Tundra Esports47c1,357$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.6535151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Aurora70c1,312$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.1230356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ed…c1e5backed Tundra Esports40c1,310$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5241225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Tundra Esports12c1,304$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.561456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tundra Esports26c1,300$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.337832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Tundra Esports32c1,275$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.7122853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Tundra Esports41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Tundra Esports43c1,199$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.743525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-43.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Tundra Esports15c1,193$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8948843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tundra Esports42c1,174$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.9917146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ae…224fbacked Aurora78c1,172$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.451050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Aurora52c1,153$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.487862.8%49 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Aurora69c1,142$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.1451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora76c1,132$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9569132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports22c1,122$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6827737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora77c1,088$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Tundra Esports40c1,085$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.911,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Aurora65c1,081$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.9321558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce25…8e22backed Tundra Esports3c1,070$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Aurora60c1,054$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.4514157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4759…dc6ebacked Aurora58c1,020$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.391540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora70c1,018$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.9286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Tundra Esports45c1,007$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Tundra Esports40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004025%10 W · 30 L-8.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed Aurora65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Tundra Esports46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.