TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,936$18 inLost-$18.141,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$109740.2%39 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No62c369.26$228 inWon+$1411,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2032…761cbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost-$7620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Yes47c189.07$88 inLost-$88.368251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No53c154.19$82 inWon+$72.471,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7577…a1babacked Yes38c144.74$55 inLost-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Yes36c90$32 inLost-$32.48043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes34c87.97$30 inLost-$305541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No64c83.46$53 inWon+$30.147673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No65c54$35 inWon+$19.1671245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No54c50$27 inWon+$2345657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64e5…292fbacked Yes46c38$17 inLost-$17.483847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed No64c28.85$18 inWon+$10.3821357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No54c20$11 inWon+$9.260267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.