TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,307

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,194 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes1c3,989$38 inLost-$38.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,910$18 inLost-$18.111,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No60c1,184$715 inWon+$469.071,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Yes40c984.87$394 inLost-$393.9516547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost-$10040546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked No65c226.71$147 inWon+$79.356669.7%46 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes34c147.79$50 inLost-$5039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No56c133.38$74 inWon+$59.021,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Yes44c130$58 inLost-$57.536750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes40c125.56$50 inLost-$50.4414728.6%42 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No62c110$68 inWon+$41.840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No66c106.99$71 inWon+$36.2526069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes38c100$38 inLost-$381520%3 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed No60c82.44$49 inWon+$32.9721357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Yes40c75.2$30 inLost-$305541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…07d4backed Yes40c75$30 inLost-$305848.3%28 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No57c50$29 inWon+$21.545657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No67c50$33 inWon+$16.757673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No57c49.98$28 inWon+$21.4939864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Yes35c40$14 inLost-$1416951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3207…86d9backed Yes42c28.71$12 inLost-$125731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1466…3bfbbacked No62c20$12 inWon+$7.619649%96 W · 100 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No58c19.99$12 inWon+$8.460267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No66c19$13 inWon+$6.4671245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.