TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Quebec City: James Watt vs Ugo Blanchet

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ugo Blanchetof James Watt, Ugo Blanchet
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Ugo Blanchet58c28,017$16,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,728.728,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed James Watt40c18,948$7,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,616.11,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed James Watt36c13,347$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,820.5536145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ugo Blanchet64c9,037$5,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.8211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5818…5269backed Ugo Blanchet52c7,286$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.668933.7%30 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked James Watt41c6,504$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.084,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked James Watt40c5,231$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.744,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked James Watt27c3,961$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.366,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ugo Blanchet62c3,926$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.798,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed James Watt41c2,130$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.963,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed James Watt2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40500%0 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Ugo Blanchet61c1,607$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.9588358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ugo Blanchet55c1,381$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.832,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Ugo Blanchet69c1,360$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4622056.4%124 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed James Watt30c1,334$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.24,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Ugo Blanchet48c1,199$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.361,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Ugo Blanchet59c1,153$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.541,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed James Watt39c1,104$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.173,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed James Watt25c932.01$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.264,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Ugo Blanchet59c852.3$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.338557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Ugo Blanchet56c764.4$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.5112852.3%67 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Ugo Blanchet70c736.1$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.021,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Ugo Blanchet61c732.69$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.281,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Ugo Blanchet70c675.45$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.065,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf17a…b0b7backed Ugo Blanchet75c666.67$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.9810977.1%84 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae6a…de5ebacked Ugo Blanchet60c663.57$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5724459.4%145 W · 99 L+21.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26d3…8a20backed James Watt69c635.7$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.639865.3%64 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Ugo Blanchet65c611.5$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.721,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James Watt44c600$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.789,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Ugo Blanchet35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.4388935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2a…d5d0backed Ugo Blanchet58c536.43$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4124762.3%154 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ugo Blanchet72c506.93$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.946,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed James Watt19c505.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0414921.5%32 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Ugo Blanchet57c399.38$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.2848947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Ugo Blanchet63c382.76$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.091,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Ugo Blanchet69c357.9$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.952,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Ugo Blanchet73c300$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.578838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed James Watt44c288.64$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12718258.8%107 W · 75 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed James Watt35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014439.6%57 W · 87 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Ugo Blanchet55c258.13$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.451,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Ugo Blanchet77c257.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5564837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed James Watt21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.381,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked James Watt54c246.12$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8472147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Ugo Blanchet42c238.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.381,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed James Watt29c223.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.191051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9f…a6c0backed James Watt44c204.36$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9215742.7%67 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked James Watt48c201.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5644751.7%231 W · 216 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Ugo Blanchet68c197.3$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5270254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Ugo Blanchet57c187.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.091,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Ugo Blanchet63c184$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0837058.4%216 W · 154 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed James Watt31c175$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2536946.9%173 W · 196 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbe…7833backed James Watt34c168.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5715115.9%24 W · 127 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Ugo Blanchet63c154.37$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8844729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked James Watt41c124.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.061,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Ugo Blanchet36c119.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7933134.7%115 W · 216 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Ugo Blanchet52c116.22$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1554141.4%224 W · 317 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed James Watt29c111.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.42,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ce…11a2backed Ugo Blanchet71c107.04$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.048242.7%35 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1e…20aebacked Ugo Blanchet71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296560%39 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Ugo Blanchet63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Ugo Blanchet61c98.34$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3510655.7%59 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed James Watt50c91.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.853,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked James Watt59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508867%59 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked James Watt30c83.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.996,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Ugo Blanchet71c83$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.075,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Ugo Blanchet63c79.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.448859.1%52 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed James Watt46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3527943.4%121 W · 158 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed James Watt50c74.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.072,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Ugo Blanchet69c70.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.966,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeec…2f66backed Ugo Blanchet71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4221661.1%132 W · 84 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4285…c6b9backed Ugo Blanchet44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.187357.5%42 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed James Watt40c62.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Ugo Blanchet63c61.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9523256.5%131 W · 101 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed James Watt35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed James Watt31c57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9544138.8%171 W · 270 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Ugo Blanchet66c55.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.738072.5%58 W · 22 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Ugo Blanchet63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed James Watt37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.525542%107 W · 148 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked James Watt64c49.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8834864.1%223 W · 125 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Ugo Blanchet61c48.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7612352.8%65 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed James Watt37c44.44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.447,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Ugo Blanchet65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442563.3%269 W · 156 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e8…0a19backed Ugo Blanchet55c37.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.993767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked James Watt40c36.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6421147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed James Watt37c36.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3369545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e26…915cbacked James Watt28c35.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Ugo Blanchet65c32.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa507…f17dbacked Ugo Blanchet65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2471…4523backed Ugo Blanchet35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.513527.4%37 W · 98 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed James Watt37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Ugo Blanchet70c27.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3148152%250 W · 231 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed James Watt38c27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.262,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Ugo Blanchet75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.542748.7%208 W · 219 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…4867backed Ugo Blanchet67c25.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Ugo Blanchet73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7524052.5%126 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedc…d4c0backed Ugo Blanchet63c19.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1714870.3%104 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Ugo Blanchet67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9126868.3%183 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Ugo Blanchet72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0631164.3%200 W · 111 L+36.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x42a0…a393backed Ugo Blanchet72c16.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.671747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.