NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1de298f909a4d4b4b42c2f428c5d028dbc0c8c606cfd692aa116c69a4ab63346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Commanders, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Giants | 45c | 6,046$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Commanders | 52c | 2,197$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.11 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Commanders | 57c | 1,898$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.39 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Commanders | 52c | 1,471$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.89 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Commanders | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Giants | 46c | 1,045$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.13 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Commanders | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Giants | 44c | 995.33$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.95 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Giants | 49c | 900.27$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.39 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Commanders | 40c | 810.92$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.09 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Giants | 45c | 768.51$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.64 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Giants | 10c | 763.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Commanders | 58c | 685.19$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.19 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Commanders | 50c | 652.57$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.34 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Giants | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Giants | 5c | 612.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Giants | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Commanders | 55c | 403.61$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Giants | 47c | 400.76$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Giants | 44c | 400$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Commanders | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked Giants | 66c | 299$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…4c76backed Commanders | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Giants | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Giants | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…3db0backed Commanders | 54c | 202.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Giants | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc812…ddaebacked Giants | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Commanders | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8692…91f0backed Giants | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…49efbacked Giants | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Commanders | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…395ebacked Giants | 48c | 168.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed Giants | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Commanders | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Giants | 32c | 136.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…8411backed Commanders | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b93…a08abacked Giants | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Commanders | 54c | 119.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Commanders | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Commanders | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Commanders | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Commanders | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Commanders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3802backed Commanders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…4c26backed Commanders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…07a3backed Commanders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Giants | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…d173backed Commanders | 62c | 83.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Commanders | 37c | 82.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Giants | 46c | 75.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Commanders | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Commanders | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Giants | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked Giants | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Commanders | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…9ca2backed Commanders | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Commanders | 55c | 49.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Giants | 54c | 46.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…c5cfbacked Commanders | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf77…b731backed Commanders | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Commanders | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Commanders | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…43fcbacked Commanders | 55c | 39.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…c130backed Commanders | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Commanders | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…c9cbbacked Commanders | 54c | 31.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…3ee3backed Commanders | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Commanders | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Commanders | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Commanders | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Commanders | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…e69cbacked Commanders | 55c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.