TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$491,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 400 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed44…4f76backed Legacy40c25,142$10,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,162.1451942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons51c24,371$12,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,905.223,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy33c23,141$7,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,702.2341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…6f5fbacked Legacy48c20,372$9,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,841.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons67c6,952$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.6925555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Legacy33c6,900$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.986744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Legacy59c6,089$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.7715155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Legacy38c5,863$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2004546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Legacy37c5,422$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.274,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Falcons74c5,415$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.9416344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Legacy56c4,400$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46419949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons55c4,218$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.86,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons52c4,119$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.415,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons51c3,889$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.4487047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Legacy32c3,800$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.6421251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons67c3,500$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Team Falcons64c3,372$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.914947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeff…68dbbacked Team Falcons60c3,370$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.69366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Team Falcons65c3,339$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.7715947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons59c3,012$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.722,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Legacy33c2,919$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.568947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked Legacy35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Falcons54c2,698$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.027454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Team Falcons50c2,675$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.4918056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed Legacy73c2,666$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.528564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Legacy51c2,292$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.0920448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy35c2,124$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.425,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons45c2,115$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.663,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Legacy49c2,024$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons51c2,022$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.991,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Falcons43c2,000$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.8618442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Team Falcons46c1,958$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.9367372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed Legacy1c1,864$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9215132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons68c1,803$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.7764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Team Falcons50c1,765$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.0118338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Legacy36c1,750$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.4914042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Team Falcons41c1,750$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9914650.7%74 W · 72 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Legacy26c1,749$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.72,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Team Falcons70c1,738$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.012751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Team Falcons47c1,677$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.771,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Team Falcons57c1,608$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.8118963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Team Falcons75c1,538$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.4841069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked Legacy65c1,517$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98211871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons27c1,501$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.691,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Falcons67c1,492$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.3645639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Team Falcons74c1,400$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36417460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Falcons66c1,340$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.657641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Legacy31c1,299$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7966436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Team Falcons41c1,296$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.976654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons55c1,286$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.584,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons66c1,250$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42545058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons68c1,231$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7615053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Legacy56c1,230$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.281,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Falcons52c1,202$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.522,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8d…24dfbacked Legacy56c1,200$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.662152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Team Falcons67c1,200$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4028143.2%35 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d38…f0c7backed Team Falcons64c1,193$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Legacy32c1,146$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4820349.3%100 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed Team Falcons54c1,130$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons47c1,114$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.531,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…aea3backed Legacy38c1,046$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.231346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68fa…f440backed Legacy2c1,029$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Legacy64c1,018$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.4522468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Falcons34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66020041.5%83 W · 117 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Falcons64c1,000$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.0439548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Legacy51c989.57$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Team Falcons61c989.17$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.1727961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Legacy26c952.74$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3712451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Legacy55c948.09$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5226544.6%29 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ed…5dc7backed Legacy58c924.84$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.342147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f9…3c97backed Team Falcons66c900$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Legacy35c890.99$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.858938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Legacy64c876.02$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.2515069.3%104 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Falcons47c846.38$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.812,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Team Falcons67c841.62$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.7315970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Falcons65c791.66$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.1655843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Legacy18c773.08$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6241716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Legacy39c761$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.3561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e0…826dbacked Team Falcons66c750$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2559454.3%51 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9d…5521backed Team Falcons67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.273470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Team Falcons66c746$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.643351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Team Falcons67c744.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6814639%57 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Legacy34c741.96$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.275,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Team Falcons46c699.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.252218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Falcons50c691.27$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9229934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Team Falcons49c673.03$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7537440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy32c638.96$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.472,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Falcons66c638.69$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3240140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f7…9bf9backed Legacy46c623.91$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2877748.1%37 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Team Falcons66c621.97$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Legacy29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17432346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…47e2backed Legacy45c599.97$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.992254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Legacy35c582.9$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.027851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Team Falcons67c580$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.422365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Legacy35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Legacy45c569.29$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.974,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed Team Falcons67c555.03$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6612552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons35c554.2$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.867,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons56c537.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.1481751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.