TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Team Falcons, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$514,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$618,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $514,474 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Legacy74c44,445$33,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,384.8822468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Legacy34c34,188$11,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,505.7775758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Legacy71c23,071$16,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,742.976464.1%41 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee21…6f5fbacked Team Falcons47c20,783$9,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,829.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Falcons64c19,581$12,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,532.1123355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Legacy36c16,000$5,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,248.3927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons65c11,893$7,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,734.5423852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Legacy37c10,622$3,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,707.3934146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Falcons17c9,317$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.4851842.3%219 W · 299 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Team Falcons28c8,888$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.0832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Legacy58c8,600$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.124,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Legacy34c8,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.9937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Falcons34c7,500$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.3950054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed Team Falcons66c7,435$4,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,907.2528960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Team Falcons18c7,030$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.8521251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Team Falcons29c6,866$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons23c6,565$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.142,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e6…3365backed Team Falcons66c6,442$4,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,237.914261.9%26 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Legacy40c5,870$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.215536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed Team Falcons46c5,816$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6609157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons27c5,814$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.61,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons32c5,631$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.121,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Team Falcons67c5,491$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.5522949.8%114 W · 115 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons24c5,206$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.0987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons66c5,010$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300.0423243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Team Falcons58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9518056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Falcons38c4,527$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.127454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Legacy66c4,463$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.522552%13 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8d…24dfbacked Legacy72c3,662$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.332152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Falcons67c3,564$2,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.1746149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Team Falcons67c3,433$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Falcons68c3,408$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.6615155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Team Falcons26c3,364$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.378258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Legacy34c3,035$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.8678639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Falcons37c3,002$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.5619540%78 W · 117 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Legacy51c2,750$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Legacy34c2,706$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.0245058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons25c2,670$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.776,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Falcons65c2,500$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6251,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Legacy35c2,118$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.721854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons26c2,041$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.654,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Legacy32c2,018$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.211439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Team Falcons66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3202360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Team Falcons67c2,000$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33064058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed Legacy52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9912253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Team Falcons60c1,992$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20018963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy33c1,902$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.861,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons27c1,842$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.340950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…879dbacked Team Falcons46c1,818$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8283666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Team Falcons49c1,808$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.923658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+36.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed Legacy80c1,750$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.483174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked Legacy76c1,703$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.3411871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Falcons21c1,670$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.641716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Team Falcons25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab2…a999backed Team Falcons67c1,600$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.984461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Legacy63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55531253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons38c1,486$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.584,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Legacy34c1,430$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Legacy36c1,415$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.7160248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Legacy34c1,376$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.4732542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5b…26e2backed Team Falcons23c1,369$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.423435.3%12 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbbe…9fb7backed Legacy34c1,367$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.1814953.7%80 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Falcons65c1,237$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.3540140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Falcons26c1,226$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7660434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Legacy53c1,195$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.0541069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Legacy34c1,170$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.3116442.7%70 W · 94 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons52c1,153$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Team Falcons42c1,141$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478128.3%1 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.34per pick42cpaid-74%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team Falcons66c1,136$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.441,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Team Falcons65c1,076$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.4615970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Falcons59c1,061$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.1756941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed Team Falcons66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6603863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7efc…bea6backed Team Falcons26c999.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2652931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd57b…7358backed Legacy33c999.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.985766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Team Falcons65c999.34$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.5723646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Team Falcons30c976.13$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.231,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed Legacy32c927.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.2727657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Legacy66c892.41$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.4117945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Falcons25c864.98$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.491,08354.2%587 W · 496 L+39.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Falcons17c800$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.51,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Team Falcons44c796.08$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.6616155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Legacy35c785.59$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.6354732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x140c…0734backed Legacy58c773.02$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Legacy65c763.95$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3817345.7%79 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed Legacy35c760$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49416546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Team Falcons67c757.49$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5231647.5%150 W · 166 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Team Falcons14c755.08$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6514145.4%64 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Legacy54c751.79$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.952,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Legacy58c749.16$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31838054.5%207 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Legacy47c744.44$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6429052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Falcons27c717.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7918442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f7…9bf9backed Team Falcons14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007748.1%37 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed Team Falcons36c692.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7a…afb0backed Legacy75c684.74$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7412134.7%42 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa0…253cbacked Team Falcons67c679.96$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9511656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Team Falcons49c667.27$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3223940.2%96 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Team Falcons33c654.42$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0710532.4%34 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Legacy33c637.42$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.0746165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Legacy34c632.35$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.3535550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons66c600$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3965,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.