TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Team Falcons, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$443,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$536,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $443,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons63c30,095$18,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,953.0876657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Legacy77c23,635$18,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,456.822468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…6f5fbacked Team Falcons36c16,180$5,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.181233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Legacy38c14,248$5,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,900.6725655.5%142 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…4ba4backed Team Falcons44c12,114$5,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,372.061442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Falcons64c9,508$6,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,075.8653746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Legacy36c8,761$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,575.6123839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Legacy45c8,703$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,816.2423249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Team Falcons38c7,600$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.1927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Legacy35c7,447$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,812.165,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Legacy67c6,818$4,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.618258.5%48 W · 34 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Legacy34c6,535$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,302.846349.9%231 W · 232 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Legacy38c6,203$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,845.636737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons74c6,096$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.444,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons64c5,917$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.282,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Team Falcons27c5,739$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.1492456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Legacy35c5,215$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.6920947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy37c4,238$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.061,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Legacy38c4,182$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.7712449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Team Falcons32c4,177$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.9114947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Team Falcons45c3,660$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63334146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Legacy37c3,562$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.022751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Legacy34c3,551$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.816248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Team Falcons65c3,499$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.4220251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Falcons69c3,252$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.1652242.5%222 W · 300 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Falcons62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86011439.5%45 W · 69 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Legacy38c2,815$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.7715153.6%81 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Team Falcons49c2,800$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.8418056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8d…24dfbacked Legacy76c2,632$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.042152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Legacy37c2,603$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64415155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Falcons66c2,560$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.5925749%126 W · 131 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Team Falcons47c2,542$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1835536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Legacy33c2,492$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.1114042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Team Falcons13c2,402$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.2918338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy35c2,221$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.355,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Legacy41c2,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.9346749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked Legacy45c2,177$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.0711871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Legacy23c2,124$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.2526045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed Legacy28c2,102$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.119256.5%52 W · 40 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy74c2,091$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.482,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons2c2,050$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9170423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Legacy35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Legacy34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9932042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy32c1,800$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.742,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed Legacy26c1,660$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.062454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Team Falcons40c1,655$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.4310532.4%34 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team Falcons52c1,601$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.4537845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce2…b7d9backed Team Falcons30c1,560$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.841030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons49c1,438$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.051,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5439backed Legacy35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.571752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Legacy36c1,425$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.7538835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Team Falcons50c1,391$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70135460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Falcons62c1,357$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.4759841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Legacy50c1,340$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.4878043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Legacy38c1,319$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.773351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6a…4119backed Team Falcons63c1,306$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.043056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Legacy27c1,279$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.6761834.6%214 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f9…3c97backed Legacy37c1,250$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Legacy38c1,245$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.965351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Legacy29c1,200$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Team Falcons43c1,095$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.4218963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Team Falcons18c1,094$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Falcons64c1,070$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.0940349.1%198 W · 205 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Falcons25c1,022$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.812,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons63c1,014$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.44,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Legacy33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Legacy21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Legacy36c999.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6404156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Legacy26c999.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9918442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Legacy34c999.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9914257%81 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Team Falcons24c941$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4337440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Team Falcons66c940.91$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6211163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf693…202fbacked Team Falcons64c913.88$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.8818167.4%122 W · 59 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Legacy34c875$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.7549245.9%226 W · 266 L-1.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Legacy38c860.27$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4813754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Team Falcons23c849.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19519857.6%114 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Legacy30c846$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.233232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Falcons61c837.96$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.169148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Legacy33c835.44$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.8140140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons53c819.09$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.3687847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Legacy53c817.48$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.11,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xdbbe…9fb7backed Legacy35c814.42$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.3715153%80 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Legacy37c810.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.6919148.2%92 W · 99 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons71c804.51$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.245859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Falcons31c796.96$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.529831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed Team Falcons49c796.13$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.851631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-54.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b760backed Legacy35c767.89$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1332047.2%151 W · 169 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd57b…7358backed Team Falcons66c757.72$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.15766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Team Falcons80c754$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.23250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Team Falcons40c749.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.997243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Legacy34c749.96$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.971,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Falcons65c735.13$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8355843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Team Falcons69c728.62$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50041069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Team Falcons65c726.72$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.377851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Legacy37c705$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1529052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29e6…3365backed Team Falcons66c699.96$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.984261.9%26 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1e…6f16backed Team Falcons43c690.38$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008660.5%52 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Team Falcons31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016446.3%76 W · 88 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Team Falcons66c634.65$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.874841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Legacy69c623.35$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.576,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.