Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2021e05a7c8b1a8c2d012a9987b1158a86a040476610bc8862468f300820cac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 7,177$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.52 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 8c | 5,994$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.45 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 8c | 3,372$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.63 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 3,150$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 8c | 2,532$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 2,453$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed Yes | 8c | 1,860$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 11c | 1,808$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 8c | 1,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,210$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Yes | 12c | 1,159$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…510fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,042$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bc…b282backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Yes | 8c | 850.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…e943backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…89ccbacked Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…1528backed Yes | 12c | 713.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe189…13fbbacked Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 9c | 616.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 9c | 600$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…7991backed Yes | 11c | 522.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Yes | 12c | 467.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…21b3backed Yes | 12c | 463$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 11c | 451.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 5c | 422.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 12c | 417.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 10c | 409.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…3f39backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Yes | 9c | 362.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 9c | 356.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 6c | 355.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…3d19backed Yes | 3c | 324.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…f8b7backed Yes | 6c | 314.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 10c | 307.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…9b71backed Yes | 9c | 292.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b53dbacked Yes | 11c | 279.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 12c | 259.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…adbdbacked Yes | 13c | 253.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1481…3ff0backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…e899backed Yes | 9c | 233.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 6c | 224.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 8c | 220.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 7c | 201.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…3398backed Yes | 14c | 193$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 10c | 192.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 10c | 192.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 10c | 192.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…be7dbacked Yes | 12c | 157.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 10c | 156.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…537cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 10c | 142.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 8c | 138.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 11c | 129.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 10c | 119.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 10c | 117.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Yes | 10c | 117.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 12c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…b26ebacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.