NBA · resolved market
Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203e34ee406a516152f21471fd8b79ba9fd73f7cd504075fbed425f2522faab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 2,290$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Over | 41c | 1,785$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.8 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 26c | 1,714$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.15 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Over | 43c | 393.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 379.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 42c | 357.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…c618backed Over | 46c | 230.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 74c | 217.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Over | 41c | 215.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 212.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 189.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 69c | 183.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 179.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 89.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Under | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5e…8da1backed Under | 56c | 80.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Under | 59c | 73.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Under | 59c | 71.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 33c | 68.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 39.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Under | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Under | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 58c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 33.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 70c | 30.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 61c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Under | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Clippers won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Clippers vs. TimberwolvesClippers won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 209.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Kris Dunn: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.