Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209ee3e0c88f4e8b6163913e5f1867c14e55b92c467803bd4f04fbafad9e295b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 2,749$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.45 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 2,138$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.57 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 2,067$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.55 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 1,548$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.69 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 1,209$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.31 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 1,160$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.8 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 1,145$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.29 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 967.01$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.58 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…63bcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 542.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 482.9$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 430$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…28cebacked Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 406.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 189.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 178.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…826cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 177.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 172$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 107.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 107.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 95.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 86.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 74.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 57.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 55.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…e79bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 52.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Xtreme Gaming | 74c | 42.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…3d03backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…3612backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Xtreme Gaming | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…73f6backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Xtreme Gaming | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.