Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc818f4c0519dbdb162ad94e3a032b4b0247a158aa71cb6e4436bdf2717565c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Nigma Galaxy | 3c | 10,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 3,861$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.92 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 2,782$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.34 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 2,442$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.88 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.6 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 1,218$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 1,040$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.39 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 750.13$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.55 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 700$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 510$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.8 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 447.4$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 363.04$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 351.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 319.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 198.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 192.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 181.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 171.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 141.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 139.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Xtreme Gaming | 34c | 119.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 106.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 94.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 94.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 16c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 83.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 50.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…28cebacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 50.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 41.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…b3fdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 33.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…3d03backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.