NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20eb3bfa2527861027d04f40827b348033394b3b1bee0af8eed89068730b1ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 49c | 26,196$12,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,340.25 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 51c | 24,000$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 48c | 13,173$6,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,312.45 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 12,500$6,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,355 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Over | 53c | 9,519$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,518.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 51c | 9,457$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,633.74 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 9,186$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.24 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 7,196$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.22 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 50c | 1,886$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.05 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Under | 49c | 1,680$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.2 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…c1aebacked Under | 49c | 1,634$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Over | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Under | 49c | 1,380$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.06 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 995.86$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 345$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Over | 53c | 290.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…13bcbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 52c | 177.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 49c | 117.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…a034backed Under | 49c | 100.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…3b7bbacked Over | 53c | 74.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 51c | 65.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…68eebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Over | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…d3e7backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5this page
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Bengals won
- Steelers vs. BengalsBengals won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.