NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11f64f586c9808a6ebb57588b38cf5767451bd789a417d01b65996a487ababe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 25,286$13,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,300.88 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 44c | 20,345$8,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,951.77 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 11,000$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,390 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked Over | 56c | 8,929$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 56c | 7,659$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,373.53 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 45c | 7,282$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.88 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Under | 49c | 7,018$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.59 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 6,500$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 3,960$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 3,081$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.5 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 1,777$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.42 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Under | 54c | 1,481$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.88 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…e6dbbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…fb59backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…b853backed Under | 44c | 920$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…c25dbacked Over | 56c | 920$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…61b1backed Under | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 784.25$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.39 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 44c | 657.6$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.5 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 45c | 453.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d9…f53abacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…a34dbacked Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 37c | 399.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.67 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8217backed Over | 56c | 321.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 49c | 247.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Over | 59c | 139.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 52c | 90.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Under | 45c | 76.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…3b7bbacked Over | 57c | 69.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Under | 42c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21a…0d4abacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 37.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…8f22backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5this page
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Bengals won
- Steelers vs. BengalsBengals won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.