NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9353fb62683d6eb78454ce63b745f83c3da5cfeab5a20c46cc1594bb76ff075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Steelers, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Bengals | 48c | 64,910$30,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,953.16 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Steelers | 52c | 58,382$30,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,368.83 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Steelers | 53c | 38,302$20,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,300 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bengals | 48c | 20,000$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,500 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Bengals | 47c | 13,174$6,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,983.94 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Bengals | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals | 47c | 8,906$4,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Steelers | 53c | 7,547$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Steelers | 53c | 7,285$3,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,861.11 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 47c | 5,604$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Steelers | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers | 53c | 2,463$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.98 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Steelers | 52c | 2,031$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.18 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Steelers | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 47c | 1,886$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.6 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Steelers | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Bengals | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers | 52c | 989.31$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.44 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Steelers | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 46c | 788.03$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.31 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Steelers | 53c | 751.22$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Steelers | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…c2bdbacked Steelers | 53c | 660$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b6…42dcbacked Bengals | 47c | 660$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Steelers | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Bengals | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…6067backed Bengals | 43c | 199.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Steelers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Steelers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Steelers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Steelers | 52c | 161.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Steelers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Bengals | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Steelers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…4340backed Steelers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Steelers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Steelers | 61c | 70.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bengals | 39c | 70.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Steelers | 55c | 64.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…48e2backed Steelers | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Steelers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked Bengals | 47c | 44.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Bengals | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…917ebacked Steelers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349b…0f65backed Steelers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Bengals | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Steelers | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Steelers | 54c | 26.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Steelers | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…eb2cbacked Steelers | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Bengals won
- Steelers vs. BengalsBengals won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 43.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 45.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.