Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2177e741304dbc6cdb9fe8720d4a8ae2611e00c0bb1ea1d9192683a1b2c9160a

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,080 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x241a…28d6backed Yes	12c	1,432$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.52	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	16c	1,200$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.82	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Yes	17c	817.18$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.92	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1622…d2aebacked Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	168	41.1%69 W · 99 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	79c	729.41$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.97	282	56.7%160 W · 122 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes	23c	705.58$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.24	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes	12c	694.68$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.76	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	18c	668.3$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.3	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes	14c	499.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	21c	475.12$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.85	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes	7c	451.76$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	19c	419.97$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.39	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	17c	383.21$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.03	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	18c	364.8$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.24	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ed…18f6backed Yes	13c	361.05$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes	31c	351.1$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	363	49.3%179 W · 184 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	15c	335.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.33	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebd5…094cbacked Yes	13c	290.56$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.77	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes	23c	289.97$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.39	85	37.6%32 W · 53 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x594d…4876backed Yes	15c	283.69$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce3…2317backed Yes	18c	280.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	83	34.9%29 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea0b…c5f5backed Yes	16c	271.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.24	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd10…416fbacked Yes	16c	270.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.25	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	13c	266$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7e…a490backed Yes	16c	264.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.37	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	8c	258.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fb…b650backed Yes	14c	231.32$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	22c	231.17$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.17	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0615…836fbacked Yes	24c	209.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Yes	26c	200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes	23c	191.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.13	108	47.2%51 W · 57 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb306…9873backed Yes	23c	184.38$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7a…7f10backed Yes	28c	172.76$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf7…2d1ebacked Yes	20c	171.07$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes	16c	159.78$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	112	41.1%46 W · 66 L	-6.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes	23c	151.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.46	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5035…cf0dbacked Yes	17c	150.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	96	29.2%28 W · 68 L	-8.5wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08e0…c646backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x131b…df91backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	17c	122.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7db…569dbacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes	15c	113.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	12c	111.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a88…0296backed Yes	16c	106.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	13c	103.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2dc…94b4backed Yes	12c	102$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83e…ac22backed Yes	20c	99.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63d8…ceb0backed Yes	23c	86.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc339…828cbacked Yes	18c	84.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	18c	82.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No	69c	72$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	79c	64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.73	175	58.9%103 W · 72 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d5…6918backed Yes	16c	63.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…6ee2backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a4…976fbacked Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	217	52.5%114 W · 103 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee86…088fbacked Yes	19c	59.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa0…2dd8backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…3365backed No	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No	75c	48$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	363	35.8%130 W · 233 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314a…6002backed No	75c	39.42$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No	75c	31$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	339	37.5%127 W · 212 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No	74c	29$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.61	326	39%127 W · 199 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	79c	26.87$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.74	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No	79c	22.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.72	135	30.4%41 W · 94 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x59a1…94b4backed No	66c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c37…ee1ebacked No	66c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	68cpaid	+26%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2c…ad2fbacked No	66c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	73cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff6…f813backed No	66c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event