Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21967733ac79e64c5a85eceea3c9af0f758df68db509f4dfb2f85a7865bf5cb6

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,248 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	26c	3,576$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.39	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	17c	3,240$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.19	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	70c	3,195$2,239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$955.62	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…45d1backed Over	26c	2,122$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.08	127	24.4%31 W · 96 L	-10.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe462…e436backed Over	27c	1,734$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.1	229	19.2%44 W · 185 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under	75c	1,225$919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.31	617	50.6%312 W · 305 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over	20c	1,190$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.87	291	54%157 W · 134 L	+21.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	11c	1,178$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.21	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed Under	79c	733.59$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.16	290	30.7%89 W · 201 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	75c	666.67$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.67	765	51.6%395 W · 370 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4e…12aebacked Over	10c	644$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.24	112	38.4%43 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Under	75c	600$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7066…50e5backed Over	62c	578.57$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	122	50%61 W · 61 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	19c	566.56$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	25c	550$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…9eedbacked Over	63c	449.8$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.72	306	42.8%131 W · 175 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd5…da36backed Over	26c	426.19$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…ba82backed Under	75c	400$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	76	63.2%48 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	73c	360$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.2	597	52.1%311 W · 286 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	79c	342$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.38	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	18c	329$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630c…f294backed Over	55c	310.86$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.97	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	75c	300.59$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.65	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Over	25c	299.05$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.7	115	20%23 W · 92 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	24c	295$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	73c	265.34$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.64	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over	61c	260$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.6	238	57.6%137 W · 101 L	+22.5wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99c4…0cccbacked Over	23c	260$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.8	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under	79c	253.2$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.2	279	51.6%144 W · 135 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked Under	71c	248.76$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.91	376	50.8%191 W · 185 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	73c	200$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Over	26c	197.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.85	72	19.4%14 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	551	53%292 W · 259 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	133	45.1%60 W · 73 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	73c	166.88$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.03	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	19c	166.53$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over	22c	154.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	327	40.7%133 W · 194 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	73c	149.78$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.76	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Over	24c	143.1$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	427	10.3%44 W · 383 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Under	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	281	64.1%180 W · 101 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	27c	92.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	71c	90.49$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.42	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Over	21c	86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d76…517cbacked Under	77c	69.86$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.07	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	38c	60.81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	74c	59.77$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.26	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	26c	59.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-17.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over	64c	52$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	150	59.3%89 W · 61 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	78c	49.16$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.81	373	48.3%180 W · 193 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe760…19bdbacked Over	64c	47.96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	76	28.9%22 W · 54 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	76c	46.8$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.26	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3451…a6e1backed Over	26c	44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49fa…4575backed Over	50c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f15…a670backed Under	75c	40.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.09	190	69.5%132 W · 58 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb630…6cb1backed Under	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	73cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc220…5012backed Over	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	296	36.1%107 W · 189 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over	27c	38.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	315	50.8%160 W · 155 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Under	74c	31.74$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.12	146	53.4%78 W · 68 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Under	74c	26$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	200	53%106 W · 94 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Under	75c	25.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.33	272	54.4%148 W · 124 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	244	48.4%118 W · 126 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Under	77c	24.78$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.78	55	78.2%43 W · 12 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	72cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b41…cebabacked Under	75c	24.31$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0593…c5a6backed Over	66c	21.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over	52c	21.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	594	53.4%317 W · 277 L	+43.8wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Under	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	161	57.8%93 W · 68 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	79c	18.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.87	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x831c…ce7dbacked Over	64c	16.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under	73c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5this page
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Paraguay won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event