Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba675e5a6002ee6be087a846d7da15e689bcb7197f5b467be86541fc95e46fa0

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Paraguayof Paraguay, Nicaragua
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,268 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Nicaragua	41c	2,311$947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946.78	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Paraguay	48c	2,143$1,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,119.2	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Paraguay	52c	1,786$927 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.72	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Nicaragua	55c	1,760$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$964.01	76	40.8%31 W · 45 L	-8.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Nicaragua	52c	1,109$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.46	232	55.2%128 W · 104 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Nicaragua	41c	527.33$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.66	115	20%23 W · 92 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Paraguay	54c	470.25$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.32	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Paraguay	47c	451.75$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.44	264	59.5%157 W · 107 L	+18.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba3e…4cbcbacked Nicaragua	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Nicaragua	56c	361.77$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.59	617	50.6%312 W · 305 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Nicaragua	54c	357.44$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.34	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Nicaragua	52c	347.21$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.55	331	49.5%164 W · 167 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Paraguay	43c	344.51$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.72	291	54%157 W · 134 L	+21.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Paraguay	67c	342.19$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.09	876	51.1%448 W · 428 L	+25.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Paraguay	47c	290.42$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.79	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Nicaragua	56c	235$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.75	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Paraguay	48c	206.38$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.38	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814e…40b1backed Paraguay	48c	204.71$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.45	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Nicaragua	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	127	29.9%38 W · 89 L	+7.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Paraguay	44c	200$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.97	1,204	48.9%589 W · 615 L	+18.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nicaragua	53c	191$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.29	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Paraguay	44c	165.75$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.82	512	50.4%258 W · 254 L	+31.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Nicaragua	62c	161.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	551	53%292 W · 259 L	+11.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Nicaragua	54c	157.13$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Nicaragua	54c	152.19$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Nicaragua	57c	140$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed Paraguay	54c	138.89$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.89	131	59.5%78 W · 53 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Nicaragua	54c	113.98$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	167	53.9%90 W · 77 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Nicaragua	54c	100.1$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.05	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Nicaragua	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	238	20.6%49 W · 189 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Paraguay	71c	85.28$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.73	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nicaragua	56c	84.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.56	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Paraguay	46c	81.96$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.2	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd881…af24backed Nicaragua	54c	80$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	224	50.4%113 W · 111 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee45…05cbbacked Paraguay	57c	74.14$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Paraguay	48c	72.92$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.92	311	47.9%149 W · 162 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Paraguay	70c	67.82$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.35	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Paraguay	47c	67.45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.95	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Paraguay	48c	66.86$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.57	244	48.4%118 W · 126 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Paraguay	53c	64$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.84	150	59.3%89 W · 61 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3f…790ebacked Nicaragua	31c	61.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa807…cc2ebacked Nicaragua	55c	57.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.52	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Nicaragua	53c	56.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.96	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Paraguay	48c	56.25$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.25	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Paraguay	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed Paraguay	47c	50.13$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.36	116	44.8%52 W · 64 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Paraguay	46c	49.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.99	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254b…7df6backed Paraguay	55c	45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.25	77	55.8%43 W · 34 L	+8.8wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Paraguay	46c	41.81$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.58	1,559	52.4%817 W · 742 L	+97.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb481…4db8backed Paraguay	48c	37.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+6.1wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd970…bbbabacked Paraguay	44c	34.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.32	193	56%108 W · 85 L	+34.7wins	+0.18per pick	38cpaid	+61%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Paraguay	44c	34.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.32	98	62.2%61 W · 37 L	+20.5wins	+0.21per pick	41cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x03c9…d8c1backed Paraguay	44c	34.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.32	131	58.8%77 W · 54 L	+26.4wins	+0.20per pick	39cpaid	+82.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0x09b0…a3b6backed Paraguay	44c	34.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.32	142	60.6%86 W · 56 L	+25.7wins	+0.18per pick	42cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Nicaragua	51c	33.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	327	40.7%133 W · 194 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Nicaragua	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	200	47%94 W · 106 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Paraguay	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	373	48.3%180 W · 193 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Nicaragua	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	242	57.9%140 W · 102 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Paraguay	47c	29.77$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.78	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Paraguay	53c	26.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Paraguay	46c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	266	31.2%83 W · 183 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…cbefbacked Nicaragua	54c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	90	52.2%47 W · 43 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Nicaragua	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	248	37.1%92 W · 156 L	-12.5wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff2…1c10backed Nicaragua	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	128	48.4%62 W · 66 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Paraguay	73c	15.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.19	709	48.9%347 W · 362 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)this page
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5Under won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Paraguay won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event