Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a46e8f2385aba8655205745c9b9f10eaad07858204150d400a4523b80407f3

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,048 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	28c	3,037$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.38	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x310d…4decbacked Over	68c	3,000$2,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.96	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Over	66c	1,993$1,315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.69	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Over	65c	1,832$1,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$632.71	372	42.5%158 W · 214 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Under	29c	1,110$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.25	115	20%23 W · 92 L	-8.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	36c	942.39$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.55	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	32c	778.58$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.15	765	51.6%395 W · 370 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under	38c	712.41$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.72	489	37%181 W · 308 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Over	67c	600$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…fa81backed Over	68c	547.21$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.51	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	32c	526.47$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.88	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Over	62c	451.25$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.38	205	60%123 W · 82 L	+17.0wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	32c	443.17$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.93	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d74…0324backed Over	68c	375.08$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.08	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.1wins	+0.12per pick	57cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	26c	363.94$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.93	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Under	32c	358.9$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	35c	346$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.02	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over	63c	335$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.95	125	59.2%74 W · 51 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7736…c991backed Over	68c	327.86$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.19	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	33c	321.59$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.92	414	51.4%213 W · 201 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	33c	321.59$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.92	355	49.9%177 W · 178 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Under	31c	283.61$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.65	238	57.6%137 W · 101 L	+22.5wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	72c	276.3$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.36	289	64.4%186 W · 103 L	+42.6wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3bf5…2307backed Under	22c	274.91$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.76	338	43.5%147 W · 191 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	62c	274.19$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.19	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	66c	274.18$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.22	258	65.9%170 W · 88 L	+40.1wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	71c	264.7$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.76	356	58.7%209 W · 147 L	+35.0wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+28%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Under	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	54	7.4%4 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+123.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under	41c	246.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	133	45.1%60 W · 73 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	33c	245.81$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.12	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	67c	200$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	592	30.1%178 W · 414 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	315	53%167 W · 148 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under	34c	199.69$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.87	637	45.4%289 W · 348 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	67c	182.38$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.62	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	75c	177.99$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.75	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	68c	167.68$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.26	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	33c	147.53$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.07	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Over	69c	146.36$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.37	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	32c	146.13$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.76	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Over	68c	141.81$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.38	224	66.1%148 W · 76 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fb…28dabacked Over	72c	138.89$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.89	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	33c	119.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.09	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	69c	118$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.58	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd82d…7882backed Under	37c	110.01$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Over	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.05	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x491c…b765backed Over	67c	99.99$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.84	219	55.3%121 W · 98 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…e9cfbacked Over	67c	98.04$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.35	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c6…beb4backed Under	33c	98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Over	67c	89$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.06	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	37c	83.75$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8006…94dcbacked Under	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	97	33%32 W · 65 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfec6…b86cbacked Under	34c	73.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	376	50.8%191 W · 185 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	32c	71.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Over	69c	71$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	212	51.9%110 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x392b…f9a5backed Under	33c	71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	28c	64.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	370	57.3%212 W · 158 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d8…3ce3backed Over	67c	57.96$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.15	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under	33c	53.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Over	68c	51.44$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.46	271	54.6%148 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	34c	50.94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	203	30.5%62 W · 141 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f7…c691backed Over	76c	50.34$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.91	87	73.6%64 W · 23 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	68cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	68c	49.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-17.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb676…2dbbbacked Over	61c	49.2$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.19	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b53…95c4backed Under	35c	42.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Over	71c	42.29$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.28	329	59.6%196 W · 133 L	+21.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b4e…12aebacked Over	67c	41$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.51	112	38.4%43 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…5720backed Over	79c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	220	52.3%115 W · 105 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4871…0742backed Over	55c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	111	47.7%53 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Over	61c	30.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	+7.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Over	76c	30.07$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.07	187	64.2%120 W · 67 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over	62c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	242	57.9%140 W · 102 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Over	67c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	200	53%106 W · 94 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	68c	27.67$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	66c	26.4$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x425e…ecfabacked Over	61c	25.15$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.79	113	60.2%68 W · 45 L	+22.2wins	+0.20per pick	41cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over	62c	24.77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+10.8wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1985…51abbacked Over	62c	24.77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+19.7wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3968…85b5backed Over	62c	24.77$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+20.4wins	+0.19per pick	43cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6e38…b4cbbacked Under	42c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8de7…61c0backed Over	67c	22.94$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.57	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+5.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over	70c	21.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.37	219	58.9%129 W · 90 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0527…a978backed Over	68c	20.51$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.56	93	59.1%55 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1d5dbacked Over	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	69	59.4%41 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over	73c	19.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.3	1,459	53.9%787 W · 672 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea85…0ef7backed Over	67c	18.45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6328…1bf3backed Over	68c	18.34$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.87	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Over	71c	17.36$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.95	445	39.6%176 W · 269 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93aa…5270backed Over	80c	13.75$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.75	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5this page
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Over won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5Under won
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Paraguay won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event