Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f43a2be6a99fd412eda11e4dac591cf6c7a1783c582571a69c101bbf718b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paraguayof Paraguay, Nicaragua
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Nicaragua | 30c | 2,901$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.07 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…d0a8backed Paraguay | 71c | 1,095$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.71 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Paraguay | 71c | 744.21$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Paraguay | 69c | 547.49$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nicaragua | 26c | 410.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Paraguay | 71c | 328.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 131 | 59.5%78 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Paraguay | 73c | 324.98$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Nicaragua | 32c | 316.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Nicaragua | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 127 | 29.9%38 W · 89 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Paraguay | 68c | 298.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Nicaragua | 31c | 289.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nicaragua | 25c | 275.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Paraguay | 69c | 234.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paraguay | 69c | 225.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Paraguay | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Nicaragua | 33c | 140.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nicaragua | 30c | 137.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…790ebacked Nicaragua | 34c | 115.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Paraguay | 71c | 105.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Paraguay | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Nicaragua | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Paraguay | 73c | 99.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Nicaragua | 29c | 99.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Nicaragua | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paraguay | 64c | 91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nicaragua | 24c | 69.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Nicaragua | 28c | 65.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nicaragua | 31c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Nicaragua | 31c | 59.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Paraguay | 71c | 58.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Paraguay | 70c | 52.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Paraguay | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Paraguay | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Nicaragua | 33c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c6…beb4backed Nicaragua | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Paraguay | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Nicaragua | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Paraguay | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Paraguay | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…36dfbacked Paraguay | 69c | 37.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Nicaragua | 32c | 31.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paraguay | 77c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Paraguay | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Paraguay | 69c | 22.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Paraguay | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Paraguay | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Paraguay | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 161 | 57.8%93 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)this page
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Paraguay won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.