NBA · resolved market
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21ede3757a42ac96c3848d08530b624c3c96b0b1a24216a7fb56e2b11b1acc33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,564 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 69c | 2,280$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.19 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 67c | 1,574$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.26 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4786backed Yes | 30c | 1,250$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…4031backed Yes | 33c | 909.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…195ebacked Yes | 31c | 783.05$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.75 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 37c | 673.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 673.68$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…80c1backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 69c | 443$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e9…3614backed Yes | 54c | 422.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 35c | 347.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 45c | 324.95$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c95backed Yes | 31c | 323.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 30c | 174.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 69c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked No | 48c | 83.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 32c | 77.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 63c | 67.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked Yes | 33c | 67.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…01a7backed Yes | 30c | 56.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…9bdfbacked Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae9…0624backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…a36cbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HawksHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.