NBA · resolved market
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65d366f3bd89db3966ae65f8902789c1e17d54d6feb599ea00822d50b4b43863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,297 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 69c | 1,828$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.41 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4786backed Yes | 30c | 850$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.29 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 750$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a37…6c95backed Yes | 33c | 607.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 501.24$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.61 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 32c | 462.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.79 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…195ebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 30c | 158.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 40c | 146.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 69c | 143.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…f01cbacked Yes | 34c | 88.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…a875backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 40c | 71.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes | 42c | 56.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 60c | 44.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…8f23backed Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Yes | 40c | 37.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. HawksHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.