NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af51e9c535501aaed38b2f2a695621286438bb4d81429e17249f2f0a89443e9

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Magic
Resolved: Mar 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,679 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Magic	44c	21,539$9,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,477.15	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks	56c	21,340$11,989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,351.17	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	44c	5,927$2,606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,606.22	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	56c	5,284$2,958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,326.42	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc61…b126backed Hawks	56c	4,472$2,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,967.68	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic	43c	3,905$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,692.22	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	44c	3,695$1,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,615.91	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks	56c	2,151$1,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$946.38	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9f…a32bbacked Hawks	55c	1,565$861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$704.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6c…7bb5backed Hawks	55c	1,515$833 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.75	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x178a…c099backed Hawks	55c	1,464$805 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c3…36b5backed Hawks	55c	1,415$778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$636.75	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	50cpaid	+104.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hawks	57c	1,253$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$542.07	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Hawks	57c	950.79$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408.05	584	50.2%293 W · 291 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Hawks	56c	548.54$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.87	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8861…92eebacked Magic	45c	370$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic	44c	368$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.72	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…de27backed Magic	45c	360$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c0…270fbacked Magic	45c	350$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1f…0fdcbacked Magic	45c	340$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a9…feaabacked Magic	45c	335$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf59e…1f1dbacked Magic	45c	330$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6610…7197backed Magic	45c	325$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1375…cf3bbacked Magic	45c	320$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc161…657fbacked Magic	45c	315$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63e4…a015backed Magic	45c	310$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb456…0523backed Magic	45c	305$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51d…5fbcbacked Magic	45c	300$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Magic	44c	295.45$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9fc…2530backed Magic	45c	290$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x955d…d608backed Magic	45c	280$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic	43c	274.02$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.48	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1305…298cbacked Magic	45c	270$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…fdf5backed Magic	45c	260$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic	44c	241.25$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.98	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab1b…f784backed Magic	45c	240$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8174…32dbbacked Magic	45c	230$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b0…21cfbacked Magic	45c	220$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05b4…bb36backed Magic	45c	210$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Hawks	57c	175.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.43	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Hawks	57c	165.42$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Hawks	58c	117.24$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.24	231	43.3%100 W · 131 L	-13.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Magic	44c	111.11$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Hawks	57c	108.88$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.52	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Hawks	56c	100.71$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.31	135	54.1%73 W · 62 L	+8.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Hawks	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Magic	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	213	49.3%105 W · 108 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Hawks	57c	96.4$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.45	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dab…dc59backed Hawks	56c	89.27$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.28	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Magic	43c	89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.27	348	51.7%180 W · 168 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf17e…c12ebacked Hawks	56c	88.39$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.89	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Magic	43c	87.02$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.42	140	47.1%66 W · 74 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Hawks	56c	83.34$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Hawks	56c	80.35$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.35	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Magic	45c	77.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Magic	44c	74.44$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic	43c	69.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2b…8fe6backed Hawks	56c	67.55$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.72	62	61.3%38 W · 24 L	+7.6wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	55c	64.5$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.92	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Hawks	56c	62.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic	42c	53.66$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Magic	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,084	42.4%460 W · 624 L	-48.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Magic	42c	48.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	609	45.8%279 W · 330 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Magic	43c	46.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Magic	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	48.3%86 W · 92 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…5a93backed Hawks	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf824…651fbacked Hawks	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcf…bdd7backed Hawks	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Hawks	56c	44.62$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.63	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45f1…0075backed Hawks	58c	43.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Magic	42c	42.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7c…db55backed Hawks	57c	41$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.52	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Hawks	56c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	870	49.3%429 W · 441 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…72bebacked Magic	44c	36.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Magic	43c	35.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	246	52.8%130 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Magic	44c	35.55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Hawks	56c	31.68$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.94	127	39.4%50 W · 77 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e4…4bc7backed Hawks	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9d…8d82backed Hawks	56c	29.79$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.11	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbcc6…095fbacked Magic	44c	28.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Magic	44c	27.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xbed6…46e2backed Hawks	58c	25.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.67	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d9…bad0backed Hawks	58c	19.06$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.06	68	64.7%44 W · 24 L	+6.2wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Hawks	57c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.74	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)this page
1H Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5No won
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 10.5No won
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Magic vs. HawksHawks won
Magic vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Magic vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
Magic vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Under won
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)Magic won
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event