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Premier League · resolved market

Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,731 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under6c1,184$68 inLost-$68.251,21832.2%392 W · 826 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under35c296.98$105 inLost-$104.991,82134.6%630 W · 1,191 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3662…0e48backed Over66c250.76$165 inWon+$85.761050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01af…7bc2backed Over66c109.09$72 inWon+$37.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under39c76.67$30 inLost-$30.110942.2%46 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Over58c41.09$24 inWon+$17.442152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ceb…4cdebacked Over66c40$26 inWon+$13.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over60c37.3$22 inWon+$14.821145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked Over53c28$15 inWon+$13.162433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.