Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8334c021516e11dbb39a214720aac235d662059f0b85e293ab5a057522573fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 12,029$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,043.2 | 1,028 | 36.2%372 W · 656 L | -19.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Crystal Palace FC | 8c | 5,602$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.98 | 4,892 | 41.5%2,028 W · 2,864 L | +25.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 5,541$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.03 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Crystal Palace FC | 62c | 5,325$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,282.03 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Crystal Palace FC | 10c | 3,499$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.42 | 798 | 36%287 W · 511 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Manchester City FC | 17c | 2,490$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.56 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Crystal Palace FC | 9c | 1,739$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…3d65backed Manchester City FC | 25c | 1,600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 1,243$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.1 | 219 | 39.3%86 W · 133 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Manchester City FC | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Crystal Palace FC | 21c | 691$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 214 | 38.3%82 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Crystal Palace FC | 10c | 678.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Crystal Palace FC | 18c | 526.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 689 | 32.9%227 W · 462 L | -32.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Manchester City FC | 17c | 521.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Crystal Palace FC | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Crystal Palace FC | 54c | 384.33$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…a7ecbacked Manchester City FC | 30c | 327.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…4148backed Manchester City FC | 18c | 302.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Crystal Palace FC | 20c | 284.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Manchester City FC | 16c | 276$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 15c | 256.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 224 | 41.1%92 W · 132 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 250.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 1,821 | 34.6%630 W · 1,191 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…0b95backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 44cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Crystal Palace FC | 14c | 209.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Manchester City FC | 20c | 209$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…d827backed Manchester City FC | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Crystal Palace FC | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 143$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Manchester City FC | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Manchester City FC | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…d8d6backed Manchester City FC | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 34cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…36d7backed Manchester City FC | 18c | 63.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Manchester City FC | 18c | 60.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Manchester City FC | 37c | 55.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Manchester City FC | 69c | 52.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Manchester City FC | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Crystal Palace FC | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 993 | 45.8%455 W · 538 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Crystal Palace FC | 62c | 28.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Manchester City FC | 69c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 756 | 58.6%443 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Manchester City FC | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Crystal Palace FC | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.