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Premier League · resolved market

Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3776…828ebacked Over55c9,091$5,000 inWon+$4,090.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under41c5,008$2,030 inLost-$2,029.911,21832.2%392 W · 826 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over77c1,810$1,392 inWon+$418.1510942.2%46 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4afe…db89backed Under1c1,516$15 inLost-$15.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under36c1,326$477 inLost-$476.81,82134.6%630 W · 1,191 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Over61c830$506 inWon+$323.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+109.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over73c500$365 inWon+$13510260.8%62 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd842…775bbacked Over60c500$300 inWon+$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over59c378$224 inWon+$153.8822847.8%109 W · 119 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over54c273.33$148 inWon+$125.73977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick43cpaid+77.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Over61c258.2$157 inWon+$101.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a0…2a86backed Over77c206.49$159 inWon+$47.492085%17 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+28.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x95c1…f4ffbacked Over59c169.49$100 inWon+$69.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9899…5d02backed Over64c156.98$100 inWon+$56.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1a…261ebacked Over61c155.25$95 inWon+$60.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over77c124.87$96 inWon+$28.7277241.6%321 W · 451 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over60c111.73$67 inWon+$45.0837638.3%144 W · 232 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under37c110.28$41 inLost-$41.162152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14f4…82ebbacked Over61c107.92$66 inWon+$42.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under39c99.98$39 inLost-$39.4915345.8%70 W · 83 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Over61c79.77$49 inWon+$31.116346%29 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over60c77.68$47 inWon+$31.071,32842.4%563 W · 765 L-29.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca00…848dbacked Over66c68.77$45 inWon+$23.384100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under39c54.03$21 inLost-$20.941145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under41c50$20 inLost-$20.2516845.2%76 W · 92 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under41c50$21 inLost-$20.515148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Over60c50$30 inWon+$204450%22 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over62c50$31 inWon+$19.2520553.2%109 W · 96 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under46c49.63$23 inLost-$22.781631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under39c45$18 inLost-$17.5512861.7%79 W · 49 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over62c39.46$24 inWon+$14.9999345.8%455 W · 538 L+14.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under41c39.44$16 inLost-$16.1712535.2%44 W · 81 L-11.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbe4…4ab1backed Under42c35.71$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd151…6431backed Over61c32.79$20 inWon+$12.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+174.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Over61c24.59$15 inWon+$9.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over61c23.46$14 inWon+$9.1868539.9%273 W · 412 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.