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Premier League · resolved market

Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,058 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over64c7,026$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.14,89241.5%2,028 W · 2,864 L+25.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under64c6,975$4,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,449.831,02836.2%372 W · 656 L-19.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad8…075abacked Under37c6,000$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.21520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-74.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over41c5,261$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.454259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over54c5,113$2,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.1810942.2%46 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over76c4,789$3,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.713138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under32c4,001$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.6675256.4%424 W · 328 L+43.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked Under50c3,862$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.562714.8%4 W · 23 L-6.7wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-72.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcd58…f7b5backed Under15c2,810$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4d…3ac6backed Under15c2,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…984abacked Under19c2,637$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over38c2,383$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick43cpaid+77.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over18c2,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64020441.2%84 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Under52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…b09bbacked Over54c1,900$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8742100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under60c1,830$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.491,21832.2%392 W · 826 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a75…258abacked Under20c1,680$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed Under3c1,458$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Over79c1,372$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9911677.6%90 W · 26 L+23.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+49.3%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Over79c1,239$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.299772.2%70 W · 27 L+17.6wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+48.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Under34c1,102$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.662437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Under62c1,060$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06a…101dbacked Over34c999.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89d2…252abacked Over51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.39560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under4c973$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9621438.3%82 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Over36c954.8$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…761fbacked Over69c869.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.71850%9 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over59c865.04$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9368932.9%227 W · 462 L-32.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Over74c789.82$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.124379.1%34 W · 9 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under56c574.45$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over18c434$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.889846.9%46 W · 52 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5335828.8%103 W · 255 L-19.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90cf…6cc2backed Over71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.54366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Under63c401.81$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3824…e756backed Under52c375.96$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Over41c365.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.853551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under19c298.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.755429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over39c247.66$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0721555.8%120 W · 95 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over59c245.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7636248.1%174 W · 188 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7285…3273backed Under33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over39c198.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9712654.8%69 W · 57 L+14.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Under52c188.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under58c173.51$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6460147.8%287 W · 314 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Over70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+109.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Over49c148.51$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.431631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over19c112.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.494040%16 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under56c110.71$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under60c97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.641,95042.5%828 W · 1,122 L-42.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8806…2e83backed Under62c96.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e6…5e18backed Under61c94.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d82…244dbacked Under34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under42c76.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.862152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Under66c74.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.161060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under46c71.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.065846.6%27 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0bf…d7febacked Over76c69.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.451163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28c…6fb2backed Under45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under43c66.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.631145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d2…c938backed Over51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under64c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.039248.9%45 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8227…f436backed Over59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under60c46.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.89850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a4…8d2ebacked Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Under32c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.482941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe7…f1a5backed Over63c30.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked Over71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.176100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Over37c27.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.061921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e02…9136backed Over51c23.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.531546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over69c17.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3216046.3%74 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a98…dc9cbacked Under79c15.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb763…4a90backed Over79c13.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.