Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00409b556a076aaf4ce9c2d36892a9c6fa0888a8a18a5cda1d6c29a1c8185403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 7,026$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.1 | 4,892 | 41.5%2,028 W · 2,864 L | +25.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 64c | 6,975$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.83 | 1,028 | 36.2%372 W · 656 L | -19.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…075abacked Under | 37c | 6,000$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 41c | 5,261$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,089.45 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 54c | 5,113$2,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.18 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over | 76c | 4,789$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.71 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 32c | 4,001$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.66 | 752 | 56.4%424 W · 328 L | +43.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…1ccebacked Under | 50c | 3,862$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.56 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd58…f7b5backed Under | 15c | 2,810$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4d…3ac6backed Under | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 19c | 2,637$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 38c | 2,383$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 204 | 41.2%84 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 1,830$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.49 | 1,218 | 32.2%392 W · 826 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…258abacked Under | 20c | 1,680$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed Under | 3c | 1,458$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 79c | 1,372$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 116 | 77.6%90 W · 26 L | +23.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Over | 79c | 1,239$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.29 | 97 | 72.2%70 W · 27 L | +17.6wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 34c | 1,102$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Under | 62c | 1,060$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…101dbacked Over | 34c | 999.98$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d2…252abacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 4c | 973$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 214 | 38.3%82 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked Over | 36c | 954.8$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 69c | 869.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 865.04$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.93 | 689 | 32.9%227 W · 462 L | -32.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 74c | 789.82$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 56c | 574.45$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 18c | 434$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 358 | 28.8%103 W · 255 L | -19.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…6cc2backed Over | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 63c | 401.81$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 52c | 375.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 19c | 298.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 39c | 247.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 215 | 55.8%120 W · 95 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 245.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 39c | 198.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Under | 52c | 188.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 173.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 601 | 47.8%287 W · 314 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed Over | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Over | 49c | 148.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 19c | 112.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1,950 | 42.5%828 W · 1,122 L | -42.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 62c | 96.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…5e18backed Under | 61c | 94.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…244dbacked Under | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 42c | 76.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 66c | 74.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 71.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…d7febacked Over | 76c | 69.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under | 43c | 66.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…f436backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 60c | 46.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…8d2ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe7…f1a5backed Over | 63c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 37c | 27.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…9136backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…dc9cbacked Under | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…4a90backed Over | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.