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Premier League · resolved market

Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$663,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$870,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $663,332 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Under4c166,322$6,653 inLost-$6,652.8710942.2%46 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under4c94,369$3,929 inLost-$3,928.841,21832.2%392 W · 826 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under4c63,739$2,550 inLost-$2,549.5722537.8%85 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c8…a5dbbacked Under10c30,737$3,000 inLost-$3,0001612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under4c19,349$794 inLost-$794.431,82134.6%630 W · 1,191 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under4c10,198$408 inLost-$407.922835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under4c9,999$400 inLost-$399.9621648.6%105 W · 111 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under4c7,984$319 inLost-$319.3814833.1%49 W · 99 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under4c7,978$319 inLost-$319.121,32842.4%563 W · 765 L-29.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under4c2,000$80 inLost-$8050649.8%252 W · 254 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Under4c1,495$60 inLost-$59.7820557.1%117 W · 88 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa103…db38backed Under5c1,400$70 inLost-$70450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under6c1,186$71 inLost-$71.1677241.6%321 W · 451 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Over61c1,034$631 inWon+$403.26825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…cd20backed Over30c919.67$276 inWon+$643.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under5c717.97$38 inLost-$38.0868539.9%273 W · 412 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under4c620$23 inLost-$22.8268932.9%227 W · 462 L-32.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Under5c609.86$33 inLost-$32.592828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9538…4736backed Under5c600$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Under5c571.2$29 inLost-$28.561241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7772…2cf3backed Under6c314.67$19 inLost-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8f…d0e4backed Over45c213.9$97 inWon+$117.311030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under5c200$10 inLost-$107343.8%32 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d4…2deebacked Over44c93.09$41 inWon+$521020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over32c45$14 inWon+$30.65429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.