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Premier League · resolved market

Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under1c4,274$43 inLost-$42.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under27c1,505$406 inLost-$406.3221939.3%86 W · 133 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under2c750$15 inLost-$15110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Over75c573.33$430 inWon+$143.332556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Under39c382.48$149 inLost-$149.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over61c318.2$195 inWon+$123.2968932.9%227 W · 462 L-32.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over74c297.69$220 inWon+$77.47860.3%47 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over73c204.65$149 inWon+$55.261,32842.4%563 W · 765 L-29.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under28c173.5$48 inLost-$47.811,21832.2%392 W · 826 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Over65c100$65 inWon+$358860.2%53 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under25c87.64$22 inLost-$22.341,82134.6%630 W · 1,191 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over71c74.3$53 inWon+$21.37365.8%48 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under25c50$13 inLost-$12.515345.8%70 W · 83 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over74c50$37 inWon+$1320553.2%109 W · 96 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under27c48.38$13 inLost-$13.0615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over61c35.78$22 inWon+$13.9516046.3%74 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over74c20.58$15 inWon+$5.3568539.9%273 W · 412 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.