Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efbdf843eae67a8ae5b87cf8997d44871450a13fe56620708839e914d6904d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 57c | 1,670$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.83 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 1,012$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.27 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 911.53$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 1,821 | 34.6%630 W · 1,191 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 1c | 793.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,218 | 32.2%392 W · 826 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 435.2$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 689 | 32.9%227 W · 462 L | -32.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 56c | 340.05$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 601 | 47.8%287 W · 314 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 75c | 334.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a35…d6f9backed Over | 45c | 320.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +119%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…365fbacked Over | 42c | 219.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 46c | 196.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 71c | 162.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 29c | 162.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…7954backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 68c | 132.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…e28fbacked Over | 30c | 124$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 33c | 114$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 53c | 107.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 772 | 41.6%321 W · 451 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…46cabacked Over | 31c | 81.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 80.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 993 | 45.8%455 W · 538 L | +14.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…4040backed Over | 32c | 69.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +151%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Over | 37c | 69.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 57c | 56.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 32c | 54.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 376 | 38.3%144 W · 232 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Over | 34c | 54.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 37c | 47.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 32c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed Over | 79c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 39c | 27.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…b8c6backed Over | 42c | 24.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.