NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f7fcecde064426811f87431306de567cd2be7b106023d5c08b3ae8d877ba3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 42c | 661.54$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.89 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 42c | 259.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 52c | 175.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Over | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under | 42c | 118.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 115.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 90.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Under | 58c | 63.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785c…affebacked Under | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 52c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 42c | 26.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.