NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ea6bcca98bf232a8f1d90aed4c0a54c0a6fc558d9f986b8a86b638a5553020d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Spurs | 4c | 4,706$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…61e5backed Spurs | 63c | 1,721$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Spurs | 55c | 912.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.21 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 890.01$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 37c | 742.67$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.88 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Timberwolves | 57c | 652.95$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.77 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves | 38c | 567$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.54 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Spurs | 43c | 549.71$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.99 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Timberwolves | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…cc09backed Spurs | 62c | 401.66$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Timberwolves | 42c | 263.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Timberwolves | 38c | 169.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Spurs | 62c | 157.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Spurs | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Spurs | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 101.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Timberwolves | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Spurs | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Timberwolves | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 138 | 37.7%52 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves | 44c | 94.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Timberwolves | 75c | 90.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…2f6fbacked Timberwolves | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Timberwolves | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 60c | 56.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Spurs | 58c | 48.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Timberwolves | 49c | 42.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Timberwolves | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…7146backed Timberwolves | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +228.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Timberwolves | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Timberwolves | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Timberwolves | 75c | 35.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Timberwolves | 40c | 32.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Spurs | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 30.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Spurs | 43c | 28.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Timberwolves | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Timberwolves | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Spurs | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.