NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737b705a8bf78e876f3dca3d09df76dab2389f4a735f5cea3ab56edcafb2349a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed8…4388backed Timberwolves | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 49c | 4,533$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.24 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,659$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.61 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Spurs | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Spurs | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Spurs | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Spurs | 33c | 201.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Timberwolves | 51c | 183.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Spurs | 49c | 138.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Timberwolves | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Spurs | 48c | 116.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…2d95backed Timberwolves | 52c | 95.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Spurs | 49c | 63.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Timberwolves | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Spurs | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 47c | 35.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.