NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bf8e47969af1082eed677d2f0fc808088f4aa46fa3bc033839fe2cd3d0f353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 1,526$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.78 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 1,034$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.7 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb5…91d7backed Yes | 54c | 814.84$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked No | 51c | 541.18$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.18 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 49c | 540.39$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.79 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 54c | 371.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 54c | 369.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…cedbbacked Yes | 53c | 319.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 259.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 55c | 229.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 53c | 226.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Yes | 54c | 183.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 55c | 181.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…42b0backed Yes | 52c | 171$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 142.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 46c | 137.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Yes | 55c | 119.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 47c | 101.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 53c | 93.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 54c | 89.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 46c | 87.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 54c | 78.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 45c | 75.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Yes | 52c | 64.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 48c | 62.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Yes | 55c | 57.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…30abbacked No | 48c | 55.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390e…49cdbacked Yes | 55c | 47.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab37…7b61backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 47c | 37.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 30.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…66c5backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.