TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,522,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,557,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,522,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Spurs49c395,242$193,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,668.7687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Timberwolves51c326,574$166,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160,021.2516841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Spurs49c260,459$127,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,624.8266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4e…0232backed Timberwolves51c200,000$102,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Timberwolves50c196,690$98,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,344.8943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs50c138,479$69,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,124.594,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…f402backed Timberwolves51c101,000$51,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,499.991776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+59.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Timberwolves52c78,058$40,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,467.847650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Spurs49c61,224$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0005036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Timberwolves50c59,922$30,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,761.111,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a5…0565backed Spurs2c51,633$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.49911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Spurs48c50,677$24,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,324.8672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Timberwolves51c38,275$19,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,754.753844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Timberwolves51c23,700$12,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,61337355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Timberwolves53c22,000$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,439.9889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x966c…9b1abacked Timberwolves51c19,608$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,607.842951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Spurs31c18,000$5,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5602437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Spurs45c17,807$8,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,057.0169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Timberwolves50c17,357$8,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,595.6355251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves61c17,168$10,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.732,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs49c15,500$7,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,594.9718651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs48c15,238$7,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3141,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Spurs50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50032351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Timberwolves51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,35014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Spurs49c13,216$6,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,475.7421549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ac…1635backed Spurs49c10,778$5,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,281366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Spurs50c10,703$5,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,351.511,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…5ea8backed Spurs48c10,160$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.82045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…1c45backed Spurs0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x78f8…b501backed Spurs49c9,565$4,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,687.092548%12 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Spurs48c9,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,319.8424252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Spurs21c8,861$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.6319246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Spurs50c7,018$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,508.891,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Timberwolves53c6,443$3,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,02817247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Spurs53c6,328$3,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.311249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Spurs50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Spurs53c5,881$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs49c5,392$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.74,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Spurs50c5,369$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.3359250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4502,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Timberwolves51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Timberwolves50c4,674$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.031,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves66c4,512$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.168,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Spurs49c4,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves51c4,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9804,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Spurs50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Timberwolves53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.5811654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spurs27c3,291$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.522,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Timberwolves49c3,091$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.546647%31 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Spurs49c3,036$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.518148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Spurs49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Spurs50c2,971$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.6941449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Timberwolves51c2,841$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Timberwolves76c2,600$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6247852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bbd…5c97backed Timberwolves51c2,588$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.243256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Spurs40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9212741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Spurs49c2,463$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.6112542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Spurs44c2,447$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.411,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves64c2,293$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.41,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Timberwolves51c2,276$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.4730452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Timberwolves51c2,073$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.6284443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc639…b442backed Spurs50c2,070$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Spurs48c2,069$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Timberwolves64c2,044$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.821533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves50c2,042$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0186,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Spurs41c2,012$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9261638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0b…bfc2backed Timberwolves52c2,000$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9654946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Spurs44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88017052.4%89 W · 81 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Timberwolves51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98022041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbc…095ebacked Spurs50c1,980$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.892,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Timberwolves51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7816050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Timberwolves51c1,913$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.111,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Timberwolves68c1,863$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.552,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Timberwolves72c1,842$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.6734255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Timberwolves51c1,796$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.2812451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Spurs50c1,796$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.767353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Timberwolves50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80064651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Spurs50c1,543$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.439651%49 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Timberwolves52c1,538$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.4627549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spurs35c1,533$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.111,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Timberwolves51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73573051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs49c1,465$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.181,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Spurs50c1,464$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.927545.3%34 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaa…1721backed Spurs50c1,372$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Timberwolves59c1,345$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.2111558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+88.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Timberwolves59c1,341$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.3913441%55 W · 79 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Spurs50c1,336$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.948456%47 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Timberwolves51c1,300$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63733945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Timberwolves51c1,264$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.67447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Spurs57c1,255$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.527357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2942…59abbacked Spurs28c1,241$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9318044.4%80 W · 100 L+15.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Spurs49c1,213$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41d1…d9f9backed Timberwolves51c1,206$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Spurs13c1,106$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.461,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Timberwolves52c1,065$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.3816740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.