NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25dad1fbfe1c7249d6e32c079349de4f6b49d7f0bd608a31dd52694cb3df825d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chargers, Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Chargers | 48c | 9,495$4,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,908.56 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Chargers | 73c | 8,133$5,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.96 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Chargers | 62c | 6,399$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.2 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Lions | 56c | 6,197$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Lions | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lions | 53c | 3,544$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.38 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…8a3dbacked Chargers | 47c | 3,195$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Lions | 34c | 3,088$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.92 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…7ea3backed Chargers | 47c | 2,195$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Lions | 14c | 1,654$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Lions | 55c | 1,166$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.29 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Lions | 53c | 1,086$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Chargers | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…2b74backed Lions | 45c | 723$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Lions | 54c | 681.8$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chargers | 45c | 663$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Lions | 54c | 620$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Lions | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Lions | 49c | 597.4$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Lions | 35c | 585.72$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Chargers | 45c | 508$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Chargers | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Lions | 53c | 460$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.47 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Chargers | 44c | 419.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lions | 38c | 413.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chargers | 44c | 398$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.88 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…780dbacked Lions | 55c | 378.51$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chargers | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lions | 56c | 241.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Chargers | 44c | 229.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chargers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…c308backed Chargers | 47c | 214.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Chargers | 47c | 213.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2a5fbacked Lions | 57c | 212.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Chargers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Chargers | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…afc7backed Lions | 55c | 182.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Lions | 37c | 121.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…e89cbacked Lions | 58c | 110.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chargers | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Lions | 54c | 108.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Chargers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Lions | 56c | 91.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chargers | 63c | 90.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Lions | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Lions | 27c | 76.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Chargers | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Chargers | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Chargers | 45c | 59.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Chargers | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Chargers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Chargers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Chargers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Lions | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Lions | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Chargers | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chargers | 45c | 39.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Lions | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…33c6backed Lions | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Lions | 55c | 30.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…345fbacked Lions | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e99…ff85backed Lions | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Lions | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.