Will United States win on 2026-03-31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285adc793b432e26892457eb068e13f33fe485ee4f703d67a42f39c3e3f61aab

Rebuilt 13 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $93,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes	18c	10,079$1,839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,838.72	79	24.1%19 W · 60 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Yes	2c	6,368$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes	26c	2,943$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.64	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	19c	2,794$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.26	173	38.2%66 W · 107 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca52…6a6fbacked Yes	18c	2,122$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes	17c	2,007$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.26	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes	9c	1,559$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.96	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Yes	25c	1,373$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.66	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes	21c	1,285$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.02	91	45.1%41 W · 50 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes	18c	1,239$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.02	302	20.2%61 W · 241 L	-15.6wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes	21c	1,048$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.62	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes	20c	862.84$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.33	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No	76c	786.94$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.37	368	50.3%185 W · 183 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Yes	21c	748.19$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.84	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6cf…6bb8backed Yes	17c	728.03$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.98	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes	22c	632.25$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.1	285	45.3%129 W · 156 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes	7c	600$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	127	29.9%38 W · 89 L	+7.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb726…f90dbacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	12c	537.58$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.17	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf591…39c8backed Yes	18c	524.83$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.47	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes	18c	499.94$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.79	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-3.9wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes	20c	497.45$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.49	171	48.5%83 W · 88 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes	15c	412.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.95	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No	75c	361.86$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.82	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0542…e195backed Yes	7c	357.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes	13c	333.33$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4c…bc84backed Yes	21c	314.29$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes	19c	312.23$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29b…da59backed Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2674…6534backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes	7c	211.09$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No	75c	199.99$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes	17c	187.43$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	77c	182.99$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.26	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f52…eb8bbacked Yes	18c	177.78$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	18c	150$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	50	24%12 W · 38 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes	20c	127.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	161	16.8%27 W · 134 L	-16.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	21c	119.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	311	47.9%149 W · 162 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…32a6backed Yes	20c	117$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e4…2ed6backed Yes	18c	115$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a85…7267backed Yes	19c	114$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea66…0689backed Yes	20c	112$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x154e…fbdebacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No	78c	110.77$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.28	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c7…eea3backed Yes	20c	109.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x768d…d230backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	124	33.9%42 W · 82 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	98	43.9%43 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	245	37.1%91 W · 154 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…5b6dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe55d…063cbacked Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Yes	18c	95.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-6.5wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc9a…7f41backed Yes	20c	93$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38f…6642backed Yes	19c	93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d4…5a97backed Yes	20c	92$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0205…123bbacked Yes	20c	91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e5…a300backed Yes	19c	91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Yes	24c	85.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Yes	13c	83.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	235	52.8%124 W · 111 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes	20c	83.11$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	277	45.1%125 W · 152 L	-19.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	76c	82.45$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.81	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e86…6edbbacked Yes	25c	78.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed No	78c	72.05$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.65	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	69cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Yes	19c	71.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed No	78c	70$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+4.6wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8356…8197backed Yes	18c	66.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes	17c	63.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	420	43.1%181 W · 239 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfedc…61d1backed Yes	19c	56.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f96…bbd4backed No	80c	41.5$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b86…236abacked No	80c	41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61bb…1627backed No	79c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	69cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	80c	38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	167	55.1%92 W · 75 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b00…c3bdbacked No	80c	38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	70cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…df70backed No	76c	31.37$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.37	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b6…1b3cbacked No	80c	23$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	147	63.9%94 W · 53 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked No	79c	14.49$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.99	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed No	80c	14.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.88	255	54.5%139 W · 116 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will United States win on 2026-03-31?this page
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?Yes won
Will United States vs. Portugal end in a draw?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will United States win on 2026-03-31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event